Field Poll: California voters view Democratic party more favorably than the GOP

From YubaNet.com

CA
Field Poll: California voters view Democratic party more favorably than the GOP
Author: Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field, Field Research Corporation
Published on Jul 24, 2008 - 11:12:26 AM

July 24, 2008 - One index of where California voters stand in respect to their partisanship is to simply examine the most current voter registration rolls issued by the Secretary of State. That database shows that 76.2% of the state's 16,123,787 registered voters are affiliated with either of the two major parties, with 43.7% or 7,053,860 registered as Democrats and 32.5% or 5,244,394 registered as Republicans. The Democratic party advantage, which represents 1,809,466 voters, is the largest it has been since 1992.

The latest Field Poll measured the relative strength of the major parties in two other ways. First, likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each party. The results show 54% of voters hold a positive image of the Democratic party, while just 31% have a favorable view of the Republican party – a twenty-three point edge for the Democrats.

In addition, likely voters were asked their pre-election party preferences for Congress in the fall election. That measure finds Democrats with a twenty-point advantage over the GOP, 48% to 28%, the largest margin found since The Field Poll began these measures in 2002.

Voter images of the Democratic Party more favorable than the GOP

Likely voters statewide view the Democratic party favorably by a five to four margin (54% to 42%). By contrast, voters view the Republican party unfavorably two to one (63% to 31%). Democrats have a much more favorable view of their party than Republicans have of their party. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats view their party in a positive way, while just 59% of Republicans have a favorable view of their party.

Among the approximate one in four who are registered with neither major party, the Democratic party is viewed more favorably than is the Republican party. Fifty percent of these voters have a favorable image of the Democratic party, compared to the proportion (24%) who view the Republican party in positive terms.

Big Democratic lead in generic Congressional vote preference

Likely voters were also asked their pre-election party preferences for Congress in the fall election.

Statewide 48% of voters say they are currently inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 28% support the Republican candidate – a twenty-point advantage for the Democrats, the largest margin found by The Field Poll in pre-election tests for Congress since these measurements began in 2002.

Generic vote preferences like these cannot determine with any real precision how the elections in each of California's fifty-three Congressional districts will turn out. However, the generic vote results frequently provide clues as to the relative strength statewide of the two major parties in the upcoming election.

The reliability of generic vote tests increase when they are conducted close to the election after all the considerable campaigning has occurred by the parties and the candidates.

Pre-election surveys taken close to the election have often foreshadowed the overall November cumulative vote for each party.

For example, in the November 2002 election the total statewide votes cast for Democratic and Republican candidates resulted in Democrats winning 53.6% of the vote and Republicans taking 46.4% - a spread of about seven percentage points. In a Field Poll taken in September, six weeks before the election, a generic vote measure showed Democratic candidates preferred ahead by 4 percentage points.

In the November 2004 election the cumulative statewide vote for the Democratic candidate was 10.7 percentage points greater than what was achieved by Republicans. A poll taken in September of that year showed an eleven-point margin for the Democrats.