By: Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field, Field Research Corporation
June 20, 2011 - With the presidential primary elections a little more than one year away, increasing media attention has been given to voter impressions of President Barack Obama's job performance, his reelection chances, and the large array of Republicans who are actively or considering challenging him next year.
In a just concluded survey of this state's registered voters, The Field Poll finds that the proportion of Californians who approve of the President's performance is holding steady at 54%. The poll also finds that Obama's reelection is now supported by 49% of this state's voters, similar to what was found in an earlier March 2011 Field Poll.
When Californians are asked about twelve Republican presidential possibilities, there are wide variations in voter impressions, with a majority able to offer an opinion of six potential candidates.
Among those who have developed significant public images, three potential candidates lead in presidential preferences among this state's Republicans. They are former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, supported by 25%, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17%), and former Alaska Governor and GOP vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin (10%). If Giuliani is excluded from the list of potential candidates, Romney's lead over the pack grows larger.
These findings come from the latest Field Poll conducted among 950 registered voters statewide.
Obama's job rating holding steady in California
At present, 54% of this state's registered voters approve of Obama's job performance, while 37% disapprove and 9% have no opinion. These percentages are identical to those obtained three months ago and are similar to four earlier Field Poll measures conducted in 2010.
Nearly eight in ten Democrats (79%) currently approve of the President's performance overall, while 75% of Republicans disapprove. Non-partisans in this state hold a nearly two-to-one positive view of the job Obama is doing.
About half of California voters support Obama's reelection
About half -- 49% -- of California voters are inclined to reelect Obama, while 40% are disinclined. Another one in nine voters (11%) are undecided. These results are similar to those found in a Field Poll three months ago.
Three in four Democrats (76%) are prepared to support Obama's reelection, while 14% are disinclined to do so. These findings are completely reversed among Republicans, with 81% opposing the President's reelection and only 10% supportive. Among non-partisans Obama's reelection is favored 49% to 34%, with 17% undecided.
Voters in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area currently support the President's reelection by greater than a two to one margin (64% to 29%). Obama also runs strongly among voters in Los Angeles County, where 55% are inclined to reelect him and 29% are not. However, in each of the other major regions of the state, more voters are disinclined than inclined to support his reelection.
Support for Obama's reelection is stronger among women and voters under age 40 than men or those age 40 and older. Ethnic voters, and African-Americans in particular, support Obama's reelection to a far greater extent than this state's white non-Hispanics. Also, voters living in households whose annual income is less than $60,000 are more likely to be supporting the President than those with incomes of $60,000 or more.
Obama's potential Republican challengers
For many months there has been considerable media reportage, commentary, and speculation about which Republicans will choose to run for their party's 2012 nomination.
From these accounts The Field Poll listed twelve probable and possible candidates and obtained image ratings and preference measures among all voters as well as those who are registered Republicans. Those listed in the survey include the following declared candidates: former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson.
Four other prominent Republicans have been getting a varying amount of attention as possible candidates. They are former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Identification and image ratings of the GOP possibilities among all registered voters
There is a wide variation in the proportion of Californians who can offer an opinion of the twelve Republican presidential possibilities. Majorities offer an opinion of six of them: Palin (91%), Giuliani (83%), Gingrich (78%), Romney (72%), Paul (63%) and Bachman (54%). Fewer than half are able to rate the other six potential candidates: Perry (43%), Pawlenty (42%), Santorum (41%), Huntsman (32%), Cain (31%), and Johnson (26%).
However, just two of these Republicans – Giuliani and Romney -- are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among the overall California electorate. Each of the ten other GOP presidential possibilities receives more negative than positive image ratings, with Palin (67%) and Gingrich (57%) receiving the highest proportion of unfavorable appraisals.
Image ratings of the GOP presidential contenders among registered Republicans
Among rank-and-file Republicans in this state, Giuliani, Romney, Palin and Gingrich are the bestknown potential GOP candidates. In each case, eight in ten Republican voters or more offer an opinion. Giuliani and Romney's image rating is more than two to one favorable, while Palin is viewed favorably by slightly less than a five to four margin. Gingrich currently possesses a more negative than positive image among California Republicans.
While about two in three California GOPers know something about Paul, opinions divide evenly between those holding a favorable view (34%) and those with an unfavorable impression (34%). Bachman is less well-known to California Republicans (58% offer an opinion), but she has a very favorable image among those voters who know something about her.
Fewer than half of this state's GOP voters offer an opinion of Perry, Pawlenty and Santorum, but they possess much more positive than negative image ratings among those able to rate them. Three declared candidates who are least well-known to this state's GOP voters are Cain, Huntsman and Johnson. In each case between two and three in four Republicans cannot offer an opinion. Among those with an opinion, Cain is viewed more positively than negatively two to one. Views of Huntsman are about evenly divided, while slightly more Republicans have a negative than positive impression of Johnson.
Romney leading among California's GOP voters
When the sample of California Republicans are asked to name their first choice preference for the GOP nomination among these twelve individuals, Romney currently leads the pack with 25%, Giuliani is in second at 17%, and Palin is in third at 10%. Preferences for each of the nine other possibilities are in single digits. Another 14% of California Republicans do not offer a preference or prefer another candidate at this time.
If Giuliani is excluded from the list of potential candidates, Romney's lead is even larger.
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