Field Poll | Voters don't have great confidence in governor or legislature to resolve budget deficit Growing reluctance to pay higher taxes, but voters narrowly support the governor's bridge tax proposal Published on Jun 15, 2011 - 7:04:30 AM
By: Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field, Field Research Corporation
June 15, 2011 - A new Field Poll survey finds that California voters do not have a great deal of confidence in either Democratic Governor Jerry Brown or the state legislature to do what is right to resolve the state's ongoing budget deficit.
Voters are somewhat more reluctant than they were three months ago to say they would be willing to pay higher taxes or temporarily extend the tax increases enacted by the state several years ago as ways to help the state balance its budget.
On the other hand, by a narrow 49% to 45% margin, voters support Brown's proposed "bridge tax" that would extend the temporary tax increases enacted by the state for another three months until a special election is called this fall.
When asked whose side they would support in a budget stand-off in the legislature, about as many voters say they would be inclined to support the position of the Republicans as the Democrats.
Voters continue to give the legislature much more negative than positive job ratings overall.
While voters' overall assessment of the job Brown is doing as governor remains more positive than negative, the proportion who disapprove has increased significantly from what it was three months ago.
These are the top-line findings from the latest Field Poll, completed June 3 – 13 among a random sample of 950 registered voters statewide. Some specific findings include the following:
• Just 15% of voters have a great deal of confidence in Brown doing what is right to resolve the state's budget problems. Another 46% have some confidence in the governor on this matter, while 35% have little confidence in him.
• As low as the confidence is in the governor in dealing with the deficit, the confidence that voters have in the state legislature is even lower. Just 3% report having a great deal of confidence, 27% have some confidence, while greater than two in three (69%) do not have much confidence at all in lawmakers' ability to satisfactorily resolve the deficit.
• By a three-to-two margin (59% to 38%) voters now say they are unwilling to pay higher taxes to help the state balance its budget. This twenty-one point plurality opposed to increasing taxes as a way to resolve the deficit is up from a twelve-point plurality opposed when The Field Poll last asked this question in March.
• By a 52% to 44% margin, voters say they would be inclined to extend the temporary tax increases enacted by the state several years ago as a way to help the state balance its budget. However, this eight-point plurality in favor is down from a twenty-four point level of support three months ago.
• In addition, voters support the governor's "bridge tax" proposal by 49% to 45% margin. This calls for extending the temporary tax increases previously enacted by the state for another three months until a special election is called.
• When legislative Democrats and Republicans are at odds about the specifics of how to deal with the budget, about as many voters say they would be inclined to support the position of the Republicans (40%) as the Democrats (42%). Another 8% would support neither side and 10% are undecided.
• If budget deliberations come down to a stand-off between Brown and the legislature, by a greater than two to one margin (50% to 23%) voters are more inclined to side with the governor's than the legislature's position.
• Voters continue to give the legislature much more negative than positive job ratings overall, with 64% of voters disapproving of its performance and 23% approving.
• While more voters approve (46%) than disapprove (31%) of the Brown's overall performance as governor, the proportion disapproving has increased ten points since March.
• Two in three voters (67%) now believe the state is seriously off on the wrong track, up from 64% who felt this way in March.
Lack of confidence in governor and legislature to resolve deficit
In recent years the state has been trying to deal with sizeable annual budget shortfalls. When Brown took over as governor early this year, the projected size of the deficit was in the $25 billion area. As a result of some recent spending cuts and higher than anticipated tax collections, the state's deficit is now about $10 billion.
Despite these developments, voters do not express a great deal of confidence that either Brown or the state legislature will do what's right to resolve the remaining large shortfall in funds.
Just one in seven voters (15%) have a great deal of confidence that Brown will do what is right when dealing with the budget problem. About half (46%) say they have some confidence, while 35% do not have much confidence in the governor.
Voter confidence in the state legislature to resolve the problem is even lower. Just 3% have a great deal of confidence in the lawmakers and 27% have some confidence. The large majority – greater than two in three (69%) – say they don't have much confidence in the legislature doing the right thing when dealing with the budget deficit.
Greater voter reluctance to pay higher taxes to resolve deficit
Voters were asked whether they would be willing to pay higher taxes to help the state balance its budget. The results show that voters are even less willing to do so now than they were three months ago. At present, 59% say they are unwilling to do this, while 38% are supportive. This twenty-one point plurality against is almost double the twelve-percentage point level of opposition found three months ago.
A majority of Democratic voters (53%) indicates a willingness to pay higher taxes to help the state balance its budget. By contrast, a very large majority of Republicans (82%) and a majority of nonpartisans (56%) are not willing to take this approach.
Less inclination to support extending temporary tax increases to resolve deficit
Several years ago, then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the legislature agreed to temporary increases in the state sales and income taxes and in vehicle registration fees to provide additional revenue to the state.
The temporary sales tax and vehicle license fee is set to expire on June 30, while the income tax surcharge expired in January. Brown has been exerting considerable pressure on the state legislature to allow these increases to continue as a way of helping to cure the current budget deficit. However, Republicans in the legislature have balked and now appear willing to allow these temporary tax increases to expire.
When voters are asked whether they would be in favor of extending the temporary tax increases to help the state balance its budget, 52% say they are willing, while 44% are unwilling. Last March a larger majority (61%) favored extending these temporary tax increases.
There are big differences in the partisan division of voters about this. Democrats are willing to extend these temporary tax increases greater than two to one, while Republicans are two to one against the idea. A small majority of non-partisans (53%) say they would be supportive of extending these taxes.
Voters narrowly support the governor's "bridge tax" proposal
As a stop gap measure, Brown has proposed extending the temporary tax increases for three months – a so-called "bridge tax" – until a special election is called, so that voters can decide whether the increases should be extended for another longer period. By a narrow 49% to 45% margin, voters support the governor's proposal.
Opinions about this are again highly partisan. Democrats favor the governor's bridge tax proposal greater than two to one (65% to 29%). The views of Republicans are a virtual mirror image of the Democrats, with 69% opposed to the idea and just 24% in favor. Non-partisans are narrowly supportive (50% to 45%).
About as many voters would side with legislative Republicans as Democrats in a budget standoff
Legislators from the two parties have been stalemated in their attempts to reach agreement by today's constitutional deadline of June 15 for concluding a budget agreement. A new law recently approved by voters mandates that, after today's deadline, legislators will not be paid until a budget is passed.
Voters in the current survey were asked whose position – the Democrats or the Republicans – they'd be more inclined to support if legislative leaders were in a budget stand-off.
The results show the voting public is divided on this question, with about as many (40%) inclined to favor the Republican position as the Democrats' position (42%). Voter responses to this question are closely tied to party affiliation, with registered Democrats very likely to support legislative Democrats and registered Republicans generally siding with Republican legislators. Yet, slightly more registered Democrats in the current survey are inclined to support the GOP position on the budget (15%) than Republicans are to support the Democratic position (6%). Non-partisans would narrowly side with the Democratic legislators (43% to 37%).
More voters would side with Brown over the legislature in a budget battle
If budget deliberations came down to a stand-off between Brown and the legislature, voters by a greater than two to one margin (50% to 23%) favor the governor's position. Democrats and non-partisans are much more inclined to side with the governor than the legislature. Republican voters are about evenly divided.
Dip in Brown's approval rating
Last January, Brown began what is now his third term as governor. In March, after he had been in office for about two months, about one third (31%) of all California voters were unable to rate his performance as governor. Among those who offered an opinion in March, 48% approved and 21% disapproved.
Now, three months later, those who have an opinion of Brown has increased. However, appraisals of the governor's performance has declined somewhat, with 46% approving and 31% disapproving. This represents a ten percentage-point increase in the proportion of voters disapproving of the governor's performance since March.
Many more Republicans now offer a critical assessment of Brown, with the proportion disapproving growing by seventeen points over the past three months. Among Democrats and non-partisans, Brown's rating is just a little less favorable than what it was in March.
Brown's highest approval ratings come from the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County and parts of Northern California outside the Bay Area. Those living in San Diego/Orange Counties ore in other parts of Southern California outside of Los Angeles disapprove of the governor's performance.
Legislature's job ratings remain low
For decades the view that voters have of the state legislature's job performance has been highly negative. In only a few years since 1983 were there more voters approving than disapproving of the job being done by the state's lawmakers.
Between September 2008 and March 2011 the percentage of voters approving of the legislature's job performance was stuck in the mid-teens. The current survey reveals a slight up-tick to 23% who approve of the job being done by the lawmakers, while nearly two in three (64%) disapprove.
Among Democratic voters, 54% disapprove of the legislature's performance and 32% approve.
Non-partisans are a little more critical – 63% disapprove and 23% approve. Republicans are the most negative, with just one in nine (11%) approving and 77% disapproving. Greater than two in three view the state as seriously off on the wrong track
California voters remain very pessimistic about the overall direction of the state. At present, two in three voters (67%) feel the state is seriously off on the wrong track, while just 23% believe California is moving in the right direction.
These results are even more dismal than was found in March when 26% thought the state was moving in the right direction and 64% off on the wrong track.
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