By: Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field, Field Research Corporation
July 12, 2010 - For almost a year Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and GOP U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina have campaigned against their prospective Democratic rivals, Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer, in this year's general election. While the top priority of the heavily advertised Whitman and Fiorina primary election campaigns was to defeat their GOP rivals in the Republican primary, they also directed considerable negative fire at their expected Democratic general election opponents.
Neither Brown nor Boxer faced any real opposition within their party primaries for governor and U.S. Senate. Yet, they and their surrogates have taken frequent shots at Whitman and Fiorina. In this survey, The Field Poll presented voters with a list of twenty-eight attributes that could characterize one ore more of the candidates. Each was posed in either general positive or negative terms, but none of the characteristics were specifically attributed to any of the candidates.
The basic question was framed this way: "I am going to read some characteristics or attributes of candidates who could run for high political office in California. For each please tell me whether it makes you more likely to support that candidate with this characteristic, less likely or whether it makes no difference to you?"
The overall variance between the items that causes voters to be more likely rather than less likely to support a candidate was calculated. The results were then sorted between candidate attributes that had a net positive effect on voters and those that had a net negative effect.
Attributes that have a net positive effect on general election voters
The data shown in Table 1 list those candidate attributes that have a net positive effect on voters.
The items are ranked on the size of the gap between the proportions of voters saying each would make them more rather than less likely to vote for a candidate with this characteristic.
The item that produces the largest positive difference (+32) is the candidate attribute, "has experience working with legislative leaders." While the characteristic producing the second largest positive difference (+31) is quite different, "has many years of experience in the business world."
Other items tested where significantly larger proportions of voters say the attribute makes them more rather than less likely to support a candidate are:
• holds progressive views on the issues (+21)
• holds moderate views on the issues (+15)
• is pro-choice on the issue of abortion (+11)
• has many years of experience in politics (+10)
• is a woman (+7)
• supports the nation's new health care law (+6)
• supports Arizona's new anti-illegal immigration law (+6)
• holds conservative views on the issues (+6)
For three other items the differences between the proportions saying this characteristic makes them more rather than less likely to support the candidate produces a very small net positive effect – is a man (+2), is a Democrat (+2) and is opposed by labor unions (+1).
Candidate attributes that have a net negative effect on all voters
Table 2 reports the characteristics that have a net negative effect on voters (i.e., the gap between the proportions of voters who say it makes them less rather than more likely to support the candidate).
Three items have the greatest negative effect on voters. They are:
• hasn't voted in many past statewide elections (-50)
• does not have experience working with legislative leaders (-36)
• is over age 70 (-34)
Eleven other items tested receive statistically larger proportions of voters saying the characteristic makes them less rather than more likely to support a candidate. These are:
• is an incumbent running for re-election (-14)
• has never held political office before (-13)
• is wealthy (-13)
• opposes President Obama and his policies (-12)
• is a Republican (-10)
• is from the San Francisco Bay Area (-9)
• is supported by labor unions (-8)
• is pro-life on the issue of abortion (-7)
• opposes Arizona's new anti-immigration law (-6)
• is from the Los Angeles area (-5)
Two other items produce a very small net negative result – supports President Obama and his policies (-3) and opposes the nation's new health care law (-1).
Positive and negative candidate attributes as rated by Brown supporters
Larger proportions of the supporters of Brown in the upcoming gubernatorial election say the following items make them more rather than less likely to support a candidate with this characteristic:
• supports the nation's new health care law (+72)
• is a Democrat (+67)
• supports President Obama and his policies (+56)
• has experience working with legislative leaders (+54)
• holds progressive views on the issues (+54)
• is pro-choice on the issue of abortion (+46)
• is supported by labor unions (+38)
• has many years of experience in politics (+30)
• opposes Arizona's new anti-immigration law (+28)
• holds moderate views on the issues (+23)
• is from the San Francisco Bay Area (+10)
• is a woman (+6)
By contrast, Brown supporters say these items make them less rather than more likely to support a candidate running for high political office:
• hasn't voted in many past statewide elections (-66)
• opposes President Obama and his policies (-65)
• is a Republican (-64)
• opposes the nation's new health care law (-52)
• does not have experience working with legislative leaders (-52)
• supports Arizona's new anti-immigration law (-44)
• holds conservative views on the issues (-43)
• is pro-life on the issue of abortion (-43)
• is over the age of 70 (-36)
• has never held political office before (-32)
• is opposed by labor unions (-27)
• is wealthy (-18)
For the following four items about as many Brown supporters say the attribute makes them more likely to support a candidate as less likely.
• has many years of experience in the business world (+4)
• is a man (+2)
• is an incumbent running for re-election (+1)
• is from the Los Angeles area (0)
Positive and negative candidate attributes as rated by Whitman supporters
Whitman's supporters for governor report a far different set of attributes as making them more inclined rather than less inclined to support a candidate. These are:
• has many years of experience in the business world (+61)
• holds conservative views on the issues (+51)
• supports Arizona's new anti-illegal immigration law (+49)
• is a Republican (+43)
• opposes the nation's new health care law (+43)
• opposes President Obama and his policies (+41)
• is opposed by labor unions (+30)
• is pro-life on the issue of abortion (+28)
• has experience working with legislative leaders (+20)
• holds moderate views on the issues (+6)
• is a woman (+5)
On the other hand, Whitman supporters say these attributes make them less likely rather than more likely to support a candidate:
• is a Democrat (-60)
• supports President Obama and his policies (-58)
• supports the nation's new health care law (-56)
• is supported by labor unions (-53)
• opposes Arizona's new anti-immigration law (-41)
• hasn't voted in many past statewide elections (-37)
• is from the San Francisco Bay Area (-31)
• is over the age 70 (-30)
• is an incumbent running for re-election (-27)
• does not have experience working with legislative leaders (-22)
• is pro-choice on the issue of abortion (-17)
• holds progressive views on the issues (-13)
• is from the Los Angeles area (-10)
• has many years experience in politics (-9)
• is wealthy (-5)
On two other items about as many Whitman supporters say the attribute makes them more likely as less likely to support a candidate. These are:
• is a man (+3)
• has never held political office before (+3)
Positive and negative candidate attributes among Boxer supporters
Larger proportions of Boxer supporters for U.S. Senate say the following attributes make them more rather than less likely to support a candidate:
• supports the nation's new health care law (+69)
• is a Democrat (+66)
• supports President Obama and his policies (+58)
• has experience working with legislative leaders (+55)
• holds progressive views on the issues" (+54)
• is pro-choice on the issue of abortion (+45)
• is supported by labor unions (+38)
• has many years experience in politics (+32)
• opposes Arizona's new anti-immigration law (+28)
• holds moderate views on the issues (+20)
• is a woman (+12)
• is from the San Francisco Bay Area (+10)
• has many years of experience in the business world (+7)
• is from the Los Angeles area (+7)
• is an incumbent running for re-election (+5)
Boxer supporters say the following items make them less likely rather than more likely to support a candidate:
• opposes President Obama and his policies (-68)
• is a Republican (-67)
• hasn't voted in many past statewide elections (-62)
• does not have experience working with legislative leaders (-51)
• supports Arizona's new anti-illegal immigration law (-50)
• opposes the nation's new health care law (-49)
• holds conservative views on the issues (-42)
• is pro-life on the issue of abortion (-40)
• is over the age 70 (-39)
• has never held political office before (-35)
• is opposed by labor unions (-24)
• is wealthy (-21)
One item – is a man (+1) – produces no real difference in responses among Boxer supporters.
Positive and negative candidate attributes among Fiorina supporters
Fiorina supporters report that these other attributes as making them more likely rather than less likely to support a candidate:
• supports Arizona's new anti-illegal immigration law (+66)
• holds conservative views on the issues (+61)
• has many years of experience in the business world (+57)
• opposes the nation's new health care law (+48)
• is a Republican (+46)
• opposes President Obama and his policies (+43)
• is opposed by labor unions (+30)
• is pro-life on the issue of abortion (+24)
• has experience working with legislative leaders (+10)
• has never held political office before (+8)
• holds moderate views on the issues (+6)
Fiorina supporters also say the following other attributes make them less rather than more likely to support a candidate:
• supports President Obama and his policies (-70)
• is a Democrat (-65)
• supports the nation's new health care law (-61)
• is supported by labor unions (-54)
• opposes Arizona's new anti-immigration law (-48)
• hasn't voted in many past statewide elections (-39)
• is an incumbent running for re-election (-32)
• is from the San Francisco Bay Area (-30)
• is over age 70 (-25)
• is pro-choice on the issue of abortion (-22)
• does not have experience working with legislative leaders (-17)
• has many years experience in politics (-17)
• holds progressive views on the issues (-16)
• is from the Los Angeles area (-15)
Three items produce very small net positive or negative effects among Fiorina supporters. They are:
• is a man (+4)
• is a woman (+1)
• is wealthy (-4)
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