National Wildland Fire Outlook June1 through June 30 2005

ALASKA - Potential: Above Normal

Precipitation: The June 2005 forecast for precipitation is for equal chances of above, below or normal rainfall. This essentially means that the probability of any one of the three outcomes occurring is essentially equal at 33%.

Temperature: Above normal temperatures are forecast through the month of June.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Snow cover is all but gone south of the Alaska Range. This has been followed closely by green-up, as much as 10 days earlier than normal in some areas. Fire potential follows within a week of an area being snow free then drops off with green-up. There is elevated fire potential on the Kenai Peninsula due to problem fuels in bug killed trees. With the lightning season beginning, initial attack activity should increase over the next two weeks. With a forecast for above normal temperatures, the expected fire activity is likely to be higher than normal, particularly in the interior.

Prescribed Fire: Planned prescribed fire projects should pose no problems.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

NORTHWEST - Potential: Normal to Above Normal

Precipitation: Above average.

Temperature: Above average in Washington State, near normal in Oregon.

Fuels / Fire Danger: A heavy crop of grass in rangelands east of the Cascades will cure by mid- June. Fuels in central Washington have not benefited from the recent precipitation.

Prescribed Fire: Inclement spring weather has delayed burning programs shortening the available window for prescribed fire activity. Many units will be accelerating their burning programs to take maximum advantage of the remaining time available.

Miscellaneous: A record wet spring has significantly decreased the threat of a severe fire season in the Northwest. However, eastern and northern Washington have the potential for an above average season. The greatest potential will probably be the Okanogan-Wenatchee areas, as was the case last year.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - Potential: Below Normal to Above Normal

Precipitation: Near normal.

Temperature: Near normal.

Fuels / Fire Danger: All light and medium fuels will cure this month. Fire danger is expected to be highest in the desert areas, and lowest in the higher mountains. Otherwise, fire danger will be near normal.

Prescribed Fire: Conditions will become generally unfavorable due to increasing temperatures and lower humidity, especially during the second half of June. Miscellaneous: June is normally the driest month of the year. Normal rainfall, as a n example, in Riverside is only a few hundredths of an inch.

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - Potential: Normal

Precipitation: Precipitation will be near or below normal the first half of the month, favoring near normal while the second half of the month will trend to normal or below normal.

Temperature: Temperatures around the Area are forecast to be normal to slightly below normal for the first third of June and then trend to normal or above normal for the remainder of the month.

Fuels / Fire Danger: No fire danger concerns at this time. Fine fuels will cure by the middle of June below 2,000 feet.

Prescribed Fire: The warming and drying after May 20 led to a rapid escalation of prescribed burning in the week preceding Memorial Day, especially on the forests. With the expected weather for early June, an active burning window could extend well into June on some forests.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

NORTHERN ROCKIES - Potential: Below Normal to Normal

Precipitation: Above Normal.

Temperature: Normal.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Dead fuel moistures in larger fuels have increased due to the recent precipitation and are now near to above normal for this time of year.

Prescribed Fire: Minimal concerns are expected as green-up continues. Dry understory fuels in timbered locations could be a concern.

Miscellaneous: Significant moisture in the central and southern parts of Montana has reduced potential for large fires, but could provide ample grass growth this spring. Drought conditions have eased somewhat across southern Montana, though general drought continues.

WESTERN GREAT BASIN - Potential: Normal to Critical

Precipitation: Normal, except above normal across the northeast.

Temperature: Normal, except above normal across the west.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Annual herbaceous fuels across southern Nevada are well on their way to being cured. Reports from the field indicate heavy new growth and significant fuel loadings. Further north the abundant spring rainfall has also lead to an extensive annual fine fuel crop though many of these areas are still very green and are not expected to be fully cured until July. Barring any significant heat waves or long bouts of dry weather, fire danger concerns should be confined to southern Nevada. By the final week of June parts of central Nevada will also be rapidly curing possibly reaching a state at which fires may spread.

Prescribed Fire: Due to increased rainfall and cool temperatures the window for prescribed fire activity has been prolonged to the end of June across parts of northern Nevada. Across southern Nevada, the window for prescribed fire activities has drawn to a close due to the recent warm and dry weather at the end of May. Also due to wet fuels in the timber areas, smoke may be an added issue.

Miscellaneous: Southern Nevada will be near or above critical fire danger values for much of the second half of June, which is normal for this time of year. Fuels will be extremely receptive to any type of ignition across southern Nevada. Central and northern Nevada will approach high fire danger by the end of June which is normal for this time of year, though large fires are not expected.

EASTERN GREAT BASIN - Potential: Normal to Above Normal

Precipitation: June precipitation will be normal to slightly above normal in Idaho, and across northern Utah while across southern Utah and the Arizona Strip it will be normal.

Temperature: Normal to below normal during the first half of the month and more normal during the second half of June.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Rapid snowmelt continues with near record heat in Utah and the Arizona Strip but will return to near normal for the first 2 weeks of month. A wet May in Idaho and northern Utah has accelerated the growth of grasses in lower elevations and temporarily mitigated dry conditions in higher elevations. Warmer temperatures with seasonal rainfall should slowly cure grasses and pose a normal fire concern in southern Idaho and northern Utah. Above normal conditions will continue in grasslands of southern Utah. Timberlands will be normal to below normal fire danger through June.

Prescribed Fire: A possible wet weather pattern early in June will slow any prescribed fire activity through mid month.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

SOUTHWEST - Potential: Normal to Above Normal

Precipitation: Near normal.

Temperature: Above normal in Arizona, southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Temperatures will be near normal elsewhere.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Abundant fine fuels in lower elevations have cured in most parts of southern and western Arizona. It appears that these areas will not see significant precipitation during the month; hence fire potential will continue to rise during the first part of June. Similar class fuels across New Mexico and west Texas are curing or have cured, meaning these fuels wi ll also likely be receptive to ignition. Overall, normal fire potential is expected across the eastern half of the region with an escalation to above normal expected across the western portion of the Geographic Area. Also an escalation to above normal and critical is likely in the lower elevation areas of southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico amidst the grass and brush fuel types.

Prescribed Fire: Pile burning or smaller project work is likely in most timber fuel classes, as above normal precipitation for the past several months has left large dead fuels wet or moist. Post-green-up project work in lower elevation grass and brush fuels should or will proceed with caution as many of these fuels are highly combustible.

Miscellaneous: Mountain snowpack values have plummeted recently due to the extremely warm temperatures. This has led to unusually high streamflow and river values and in many areas this has become a serious concern. A 1 -2 week period of normal to slightly below normal temperatures is e xpected across many areas from the end of May into early June. Parts of eastern and central New Mexico will experience periodic bursts of heavy rainfall while much of Arizona will remain dry.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN - Potential: Normal

Precipitation: Near normal over much of the Rocky Mountain Area, except normal to above normal over northern Wyoming and South Dakota.

Temperature: Near normal.

Fuels / Fire Danger: The Area had its normal rapid loss in snowpack as temperatures warmed up during May; however the higher elevation snowpack of southwest Colorado remains well above normal as of late May. Moisture and snowpack has been ample enough across the Area to produce a significant green-up this spring. This green-up however, will add to the fuel load as the vegetation cures out during June. Fuel projections indicate the greatest threat for large fire activity exists across the lower elevations and foothills of southern and western Colorado during the second half of June, which is not abnormal for this time of year.

Prescribed Fire: No issues expected.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

EASTERN - Potential: Below Normal to Normal

Precipitation: Slightly above normal precipitation is expected across western Minnesota while the remainder of the geographic area has equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation occurring.

Temperature: There are equal chances for above normal, normal or below normal temperatures for the entire geographic area.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula o f Michigan as well as northeastern parts of the Lower Peninsula reported below normal precipitation at the end of May but full green-up was expected to occur through early June. A few weather stations over portions of northeast and central Wisconsin reported 1000 hour fuel moistures in the 17 to 19% range at the end of May. Thousand-hour fuel moistures were lower than normal at the Indiana Dunes RAWS near Chicago and across southern Missouri. While these areas have greened up, short and longer term precipitation anomalies will need to be monitored this summer. The majority of Minnesota received periods of rainfall through the latter half of May. The exception was the northwest portion of the state which received lesser amounts.

Prescribed Fire: Green-up was either complete or near complete across the Eastern Area at the end of May. Further prescribed fire activity will be limited to the northern tier states.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

SOUTHERN - Potential: Below Normal to Above Normal

Precipitation: Overall, rainfall is expected to be within the average range generally east of the Mississippi River. The Ohio Valley and the North Carolina and Virginia coastal areas should see above normal rain during June. Below normal rain is expected in the Mississippi Delta Region.

Temperature: Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across most of the northeastern fourth of the region. Above normal temperatures are expected in Texas and Oklahoma.

Fuels / Fire Danger: Elevated fire danger concerns will be present in Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Below normal risks are expected i n the Appalachian Mountains, and Ohio, Tennessee, and James River Valleys.

Prescribed Fire: Prescribed fire activity continues to wind down as fuels reach full green-up. Opportunities for burning will continue to be limited. Some areas may be able to conduct 5 prescribed fires in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas where grasses have begun to cure earlier than normal.

Miscellaneous: No issues.

National Note: Based on reported data so far this year, nationally there were 75% of the average numbers of fires, burning 54% of the average acres.

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