May 25, 2021 – Dry weather with temperatures near or above average through the week.
Discussion
Short term ensembles continue in good agreement with progressive pattern through the end of the week. Upper lows will continue to track across the Pacific Northwest with jet stream situated near the Oregon/California boarder. Temperatures will be near to above normal through Friday. Slightly cooler temperatures in Delta influenced areas where weak onshore flow persists.
Short wave ridge briefly strengthens Wednesday before next disturbance drops through in progressive pattern, Thursday. Ensembles keep precipitation north of the area over Oregon. Winds will be generally less than 10 mph through the week, except in typical breezy Delta locations and afternoon ridge breeziness.
Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Models have trended weaker with the short wave trough progged through CA over the weekend. Differences still exist with depth and progression of this wave leading to some uncertainty with potential deep moist convection.
Forecast trending drier on Saturday with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over southern portions of our Sierra Nevada zone Sunday afternoon.
EPAC upper ridging progged to build back inland early next week resulting in dry and hot weather with triple digit heat expected in portions of the Central Valley.