GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts are showing mean areal precipitation (MAP) over the North Fork American watershed around 1 inch over the next 10 days with considerable spread among individual ensemble members Credit: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) / Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
Forecast models show the potential for an AR 1 (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) in the foothills of Northern CA near the location of the Mosquito Fire, but there is still uncertainty in the magnitude and duration of AR conditions