Dry weather and cold, foggy mornings over the next few days. Gusty winds, along with potential for light mountain precipitation return over the weekend.
Discussion
Dry weather will continue through Friday as ridging remains over Northern California with Valley highs in the 60s, and cooler temperatures in the mountains. Warmer high temperatures will be possible across portions of the foothills and northern Sacramento Valley today and Friday, with a 20 to 50% chance of high temperatures over 70 degrees. Valley low temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s through the end of the week, with a 15 to 30% chance of below freezing temperatures Friday morning in more rural areas of the Valley. Low temperatures will gradually warm to the mid 30s to low 40s heading into the weekend. Patchy Valley fog and frost are forecast to accompany these chilly overnight temperatures as well. Be sure to protect plants, people, and pets from the cold weather.
A few light sprinkles will be possible over the Valley on Friday ahead of the main inside slider that’s expected to move through overnight on Friday and into Saturday. This will bring about a return to gusty winds through Sunday with chances for light precipitation at higher elevations. Rain and snow are generally expected to be minimal, remaining localized above 3000 feet. Most (very light) accumulations will be limited to the Motherlode area, with expected totals generally below 0.25 inches. Snow will also be very light and limited to higher elevations, with less than 2 inches expected in most areas from HWY 50 northward. Precipitation amounts continue to trend down as this system is bringing in dry air. Still, due to the dynamic nature of this synoptic set up, a stray light shower or sprinkles cannot be ruled out over the Valley.
Gusty north to east winds will be the main story this weekend, with the strongest winds expected on Saturday. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 65 to 90% chance of gusts at 40 mph or higher in the western portion of the Valley, and 50 to 80% chance of gusts at 50 mph or higher over the Sierra.
Confidence continues to increase that peak winds will arrive late Saturday morning with a secondary surge over the mountains in the evening. While winds will be slightly weaker on Sunday, they’ll still be fairly gusty. The NBM currently has a 25 to 55% probabilty of gusts 40 mph or higher in the western portion of the Valley on Sunday, and a 35 to 60% chance of gusts at 50 mph or higher over the Sierra.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
As the inside slider progresses further south and east, and ridging builds back in over NorCal early next week, dry weather and cold morning temperatures are expected to return. Morning low temperatures will drop back into the 30s, with more widespread chances at near or below freezing Valley temperatures and frost. Daytime highs will be near to slightly above normal, with Valley temperatures reaching the high 50s to low 60s, and 40s to 50s at higher elevations. On Thursday, there’s potential for the approach of a weak trough, though this far out there is much uncertainty around what that could mean for interior NorCal beyond slightly cooler temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook has much of interior NorCal under equal chances for above or below normal precipitation, so chances for precipitation with this system cannot be ruled out as of yet. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast as this system evolves!