New York, NY — Torrential rains triggered catastrophic flash floods across Texas yesterday, submerging roads, sweeping away vehicles, and forcing dramatic rescues. According to CNN, at least 32 people, including 14 children, have died. Several others remain missing as search efforts continue. More than 27 girls are still reported missing at Camp Mystic, located near the Guadalupe River, which rose more than 22 feet in hours overnight into Friday.

Emergency crews worked through the night, but rising waters and debris hampered rescue operations. Officials warn that the death toll could rise as crews assess the hardest-hit areas. The disaster underscores Texas’ growing vulnerability to extreme weather fueled by climate change.

Role of climate change

According to scientists at Climate Central: 

Low-level moisture fueling this system came from a warmer-than-average Gulf of Mexico.

🌊 Sea surface temps are 1°–2°F above average for early July—made 10x to 30x more likely by climate change.

Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, UCL, said:

“The tragic events in Texas are exactly what we would expect in our hotter, climate-changed, world.  There has been an explosion in extreme weather in recent years, including more devastating flash floods caused by slow-moving, wetter, storms, that dump exceptional amounts of rain over small areas across a short time.  

Dr Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist at UCLA:

“This kind of record-shattering rain (caused by slow-moving torrential thunderstorms) event is *precisely* that which is increasing the fastest in a warming climate. So it’s not a question of whether climate change played a role–it’s only a question of how much” (source) 

As it is not possible for weather forecasts to pinpoint exactly where and when such high intensity and localized heavily rainfall will occur, “This is one of the reasons why it’s quite concerning that most extreme convective rain events appear to be intensifying *very* quickly in a warming climate (at a rate of ~14%/C (or more)): it is inherently difficult to predict fine-scale details of such events in advance, & they can be devastating.” (source)

Forecasts and early warnings

Dr Marshall Shepherd, meteorologist, University of Georgia:

The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am CDT for Bandera and Kerr Counties, respectively. They made statements like, “Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses.” That warning also specifically identified regions like Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Waltonia, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, and Lost Maples State Natural Area. (source)

As reported by Yale Climate Connections:

  • The threat of heavy overnight rain in the western Hill Country was well anticipated by the National Weather Service, even though pinpointing exactly where such intense localized storms will form hours in advance can be difficult to impossible.
  • A Flood Watch was issued at 1:18 p.m. Thursday, more than 15 hours ahead of the disaster, by the National Weather Service in New Braunfels, TX, for parts of eight counties, including hard-hit Kerr County. It warned that localized rainfall amounts could reach 5 to 7 inches by Friday morning.
  • A Flood Warning went into effect for parts of Bandera and Kerr counties at 1:14 a.m. Friday. It warned of “life threatening flash flooding” at locations that included Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, and Waltonia.
  • A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for south central Kerr County, including the town of Hunt, at 4:03 a.m. Friday. The warning noted, “Numerous low water crossings as well as the Guadalupe River at Hunt are flooding. Between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen.”
  • A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for locations along the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrville and Center Point at 5:34 a.m. Friday, with the note that “Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring.”
  • It remains unclear whether or how the overnight warnings made it to the people most at risk – a classic “last-mile problem.”

Dr Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist at UCLA:

“There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods–but that’s simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, “heads up” outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.” (source)

John Morales, meteorologist: 

“I don’t see any evidence that cuts to NOAA / NWS caused any degradation in the anticipatory weather warnings ahead of this Texas tragedy. Those local officials blaming NWS are wrong! But the cuts will eventually bite us with unneeded loss of life.” (source)