The Milano-Cortina 2026 Olympics are due to start with many of the Olympic venues experiencing higher than average temperatures and below-average snow as we approach the opening ceremony on the 6th of February. This comes as no surprise, with studies having long warned about the impacts of rising temperatures on snow cover in the Alps.
In the build-up to the Winter Olympics, a study involving CMCC researchers on the impacts of climate change on the Italian Province of Belluno – home to Cortina D’Ampezzo, the town co-hosting the 2026 Winter Olympics – projects a 9.5% decrease in the snow cover days and 37.9% decrease in the number of snow production days in the 2036-2065 time window. In economic terms, the dip in snow availability could generate losses of around 3 million euros between 2012-2041 and upwards of 9 million euros in the 2036-2065 period.
“For the alpine area, what emerges is a reduction in the number of days with snow depth greater than 30 centimeters,” says CMCC researcher and co-author of the study Giuliana Barbato. “This represents a key element in the hazard analysis for the broader alpine region and implies an increase in future risk for winter sports and large winter events such as the Winter Olympics.”
The study reveals how ski facilities in the northern part of the province, which currently have adequate snow cover days, are expected to experience higher significant impacts on the depth and quality of the snowpack, raising concerns about the sustainability of ski resorts and investments.
The science: A warming reality
“Science is evolving, and new models, datasets and scenarios will become available in the coming years,” explains CMCC researcher Paola Mercogliano, who also contributed to the study. “Beyond increasing spatial resolution, next-generation modelling systems are improving the representation of key physical processes. This will enable a more reliable simulation of localized phenomena such as snowfall and intense precipitation in mountainous regions. These future datasets will highlight local-scale climate characteristics more robustly and will be crucial for impact assessments and adaptation planning.”
Preliminary research suggests that future temperature rises in the Alps could be even more severe, with average winter temperatures potentially 3-5 °C higher than previously estimated.
“This is something that should concern us, because it is likely that the amount of snow cover and snow production days in the Alps will be even less than we previously thought,” explains Daniele Peano, co-author of CMCC’s comprehensive analysis of regional climate models.
This matters profoundly for decision-makers and industry planners as winter sports will require ever greater investments and efforts to adapt to climate change: skiing will move to higher elevations, where conditions are harsher and more difficult to manage, and artificial snow will become ever more present, requiring increased water and energy use.
“The Belluno case provides a useful example, but the approach used in our study is transferable to other regions that are home to winter sports and large winter sport events,” says Barbato. This implies working at higher resolutions and adapting models, as much as possible, to the needs of stakeholders.
“If the key question is how much snow will there be then we need to try and extract that information as accurately as possible from global, regional, and very high-resolution models,” says Peano. “However, it is also important to remember that climate projections should not be read as weather forecasts. If, on average, snow decreases across the Alps, this does not exclude individual years with more snow than before. Cold extremes will continue to exist; they won’t disappear entirely. But, they will become less frequent and generally less intense.”
The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) is a leading research institution dedicated to climate science, providing cutting-edge insights and innovative solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. CMCC plays a pivotal role in global climate research, working closely with international partners to advance climate modeling, forecasting, and policy recommendations.