Oct. 26, 2016 – A statewide CALSPEAKS survey of Californians likely to vote in the Nov. 8 general election reveals overwhelming support for three ballot measures: legalizing marijuana (Proposition 64), legislative transparency (Proposition 54), and additional restrictions on firearms and ammunition (Proposition 3).
The likely voters were asked their opinion on 13 of the 17 propositions facing Californians this fall. By their responses, it seems that most propositions are headed for victory, but two that fell within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points are too close to call:
Proposition 62, which would repeal the death penalty and replace it with life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, has 45 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor.
Proposition 67, which would ban single-use plastic bags in retail settings, has 45 percent in favor and 39 percent opposed.
The CALSPEAKS survey of 619 likely voters was conducted Oct. 7-13.
As for the presidential race, Hillary Clinton would appear poised to defeat Donald Trump in California.
Clinton, the Democrat, leads her Republican opponent in the CALSPEAKS poll by 61 percent to 25 percent, with the remaining 14 percent of likely voters favoring Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or remaining “undecided.”
In the U.S. Senate race, respondents favor California Attorney General Kamala Harris over U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez by 48 percent to 24 percent. The two Democrats are battling for the Senate seat vacated by longtime incumbent Barbara Boxer.
“The most interesting finding of the survey is simply the number of propositions that look poised to pass,” says David Barker, director of Sacramento State’s Institute for Social Research (ISR) and its CALSPEAKS Public Opinion Research Center. “Historically, it has been easier to defeat a proposition than to pass one.”
The following ballot measures all got a thumbs-up from the CALSPEAKS survey:
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Proposition 51 (school construction bond) – yes, up 56 percent to 21 percent
Proposition 52 (hospital fees) – yes, up 52 percent to 18 percent
Proposition 55 (income tax on high earners) – yes, up 58 percent to 21 percent
Proposition 56 (tobacco tax increase) – yes, up 62 percent to 26 percent
Proposition 57 (early parole consideration for people convicted of nonviolent felonies) – yes, up 61 percent to 16 percent
Proposition 58 (removing restrictions to bilingual education) – yes, up 59 percent to 21 percent
Proposition 59 (campaign finance) – yes, up 47 percent to 19 percent
Proposition 60 (condom requirement) – yes, up 50 percent to 31 percent
Proposition 66 (streamline death penalty procedures) – yes, up 51 percent to 20 percent
CALSPEAKS did not conduct polls on Proposition 53 (revenue bond restrictions), Proposition 61 (state drug price cap) and Proposition 65 (carry-out bag sales).
California Speaks (CALSPEAKS), the new statewide public-opinion polling project of ISR, is the only probability-based survey panel in the state that focuses on the attitudes and perceptions of California’s residents.
Since its August 2015 launch, CALSPEAKS has surveyed Californians about their attitudes regarding higher education, water use, and politics. Upcoming surveys will query California residents on such matters as immigration policies, the drought, and e-cigarette use.
ISR plans to launch a Sacramento-centric version of CALSPEAKS to further amplify the voices of local residents on local issues.
For more about the Institute for Social Research at Sacramento State and the CALSPEAKS Opinion Research Center: http://www.csus.edu/isr/CALSPEAKS