Drier weather with patchy morning fog the next few days. A few showers over the Coast Range, southern Cascades and northern Sacramento Valley Friday and Saturday. Dry and warming weather prevails Sunday through early next week under high pressure. Active weather pattern returns mid to late next week.

We are continuing to monitor an active weather pattern mid to late next week and will update with the latest forecast developments as we approach the event. While there is some uncertainty this far out we are currently anticipating the potential for heavy high elevation snow with periods of moderate to heavy rain elsewhere.

Discussion

Upper level ridge continues to build over NorCal and will remain in place through early next week. Atmospheric river passing well north of the area over the Pacific Northwest will provide some spill over moisture moving over the ridge today and Saturday causing light showers over mainly Coast Range, southern Cascades and Shasta county. Ensembles have continued trending drier, as there is little in the way of dynamics to focus precipitation in this pattern, minimal impacts are expected. Highest amounts are expected in the higher elevations of Shasta County where 0.25″-0.50″ are currently forecast, less than 0.25 is expected at Valley locations.

Mostly dry weather through the weekend, except for a some showers over the mountains and mainly the northern half of the Sacramento Valley Friday and Saturday.

Increased cloud cover will lower fog chances this morning and over the weekend, except possibly the San Joaquin Valley where there will be less cloud cover. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60’s for Valley locations through Saturday. A few locations may even have near record daily high temperatures Sunday and Monday.

Above normal daytime high temperatures are highlighted on the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for this timeframe. For the Valley, afternoon highs of upper 60s to low 70s are forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Large scale upper high over the western U.S. progresses Tuesday as deep Pacific low approaches.

Dry weather expected Tuesday, then precip with baroclinic zone modeled to spread over all of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Precipitation forecast late next week

Associated AR2 will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to much of the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday.

Showers, heavy at times, continue Thursday into Friday with upper low. WPC storm total QPF Tuesday night through 12z Friday showing around 1-3 inches of rain in the Central Valley, and around 1.5 to 5 inches in the foothills and mountains.

Snow impacts from next week's system

Snow levels will trend down beyond midweek, initially starting above 7000 feet Tuesday night, but lower to 3000 to 4000 feet by early Friday. Several feet of snow expected above 6000 feet.