July 31, 2019 – Temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below normal through Friday, a little above normal over the weekend. Winds will mostly be from the south with an increased Delta Breeze.
Discussion
The area remains between the high centered over the Four Corners area and a trough over the eastern Pacific, and this pattern should continue through the rest of the week. Onshore flow continues to bring relatively to the area.
Temperatures are generally 2 to 5 degrees lower than this time yesterday. Skies are clear in the area except for some stratus currently around Vallejo to Cordelia.
Coastal profilers show that marine layer is too shallow for thick stratus to spread much further this morning, but could see some few to scattered low clouds into the Delta and possibly reaching the Sacramento area.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to be several degrees warmer than yesterday. Am leaning on the NBM, which has done very well projecting area temperatures in this pattern. Valley highs are expected to peak in the 90s with the mountains and foothills in the 70s to lower 90s.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler Thursday, then trend upwards later in the week. By Saturday temperatures should be little above normal, with the northern Sacramento Valley being the hot spot, in the low 100s.
Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Ensemble guidance continues to show the monsoon high centered over the desert southwest during the extended period. However, it does show it gradually building northward, which would push the upper level through more off shore.
Because of this we can expect to see a slight increase in our high temperatures with the Valley making it into the 90s and low 100s while the foothills and mountains range from the low 70s to the low 90s. Most of the monsoon moisture looks to stay east of the Sacramento CWA, so thunderstorms are not looking likely at this time.