Below normal temps today, gusty winds and a fire weather watch over the weekend

June 7, 2019 – Temperatures will be below normal today, then warm to well above normal over the weekend into next week. Gusty northerly wind increases fire weather concerns in the Central Valley Saturday and Sunday.

Discussion

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Upper level trough passing through NorCal will bring below normal temperatures today. North winds will increase during the afternoon as surface gradient tightens behind the trough a few gusts to 25 mph will be possible. Gradient tightens further Saturday, as high pressure builds towards the west coast behind departing trough over the Great Basin. Temperatures will also warm significantly back to slightly above normal levels. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible over the nrn/central Sac Valley possibly to wind advisory levels. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will result in elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the Valley and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Saturday into Sunday.

Progressively warmer temperatures Sunday into Tuesday with high temp values at 100 or above Monday and Tuesday. It is likely that the area will begin to feel some heat impacts during this period and sensitive groups should monitor forecasts.

Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

High amplitude upper high pressure ridge over the west coast will bring very warm and dry conditions for start of the extended forecast. Daytime highs are currently expected to range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year but should be shy of record breaking. Winds Tuesday should be relatively light under the ridge. Upper ridge shifts east by mid week as a very weak upper trough pushes on to the coast. Most CWA locations should see at least some cooling. Quite a bit of discrepancy between models on whether there will be any shower threat produced by this trough. GFS brings mountain showers while ECMWF remains dry. Blended models remain dry so will keep any precipitation mention out of forecast for now. Very weak troughing over the west coast keeps daytime temperatures trending down Thursday while still seeing highs well above normal. Models showing upper ridging return at the end of the extended period for a likely warming trend.