Extended period of dry weather with sunny days and chilly overnight temperatures. Gusty north to east winds are forecast this afternoon into Monday. Cold temperatures will impact the homeless and those without adequate heating. Sensitive plants left outdoors may be damaged or killed.
Discussion
Current satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds passing over interior northern California early this morning. The cloud cover is limiting some of the cooling across the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys, however as those clear out, another chilly morning is expected this Sunday morning. The northern Sacramento Valley is already seeing temperatures in the mid 30s as of 0200 PST, where skies have cleared. Patchy fog will be possible this morning, mainly in the northern San Joaquin Valley.
Light winds are currently being observed, however by mid- day, north to east winds will begin to increase as an inside slider digs over the Great Basin and the pressure gradient tightens.
Strongest winds will be along the western Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys with northerly gusts 30 to 45 mph through this evening, and in the Sierra Nevada with gusts 40 to 55 mph and locally higher this afternoon into Monday.
A Wind Advisory will be in effect from noon to 7 pm PST today for much of the Valley, and from 5 pm PST today through noon Monday for the mountains. North to east winds on Monday will keep the morning low temperatures up a few degrees.
However, near freezing morning lows are possible again in the Valley Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with the exception of the northern and western Sacramento Valley where enough wind will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the rest of the Valley.
The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows 40 to 80 percent probability of 32 degrees or below in the Valley mainly for Marysville southward. Dry conditions and seasonable daytime temperatures will prevail through midweek with lighter north to east winds as ridging remains over the Eastern Pacific and troughing off to our east.
Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Dry pattern with seasonably mild days and cool nights forecast late this week as ensembles, supported by clusters, show good agreement in keeping the strong blocking ridge positioned over the eastern Pacific off the PacNW coast through about Thursday.
Retrogression of the ridge is then forecast next weekend as a deeper trough is forecast to develop over the West. This will open the window for a return of snow shower chances across the northern Sierra as slider type systems drop down from the north as well as bringing a return of much cooler temperatures to the higher elevations.