Elevated PSPS potential for the middle part of next week, according to PG&E

NEVADA CITY, Calif. November 16, 2019 – After showing all clear this morning, the latest PG&E weather forecast shows a elevated PSPS potential for Wednesday and Thursday in our area. At this time, no decision has been made if a PSPS is warranted and should be implemented.

This evening, PG&E’s weather forecast states: “Weather models continue to show potential for breezy to locally gusty offshore winds to develop mid-week next week across Northern California.  The updated PSPS forecast now shows elevated PSPS potential for the middle part of next week for zones 2, 3, 4 and 5.  There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the strength, timing and humidity levels with this system. Expect changes in the forecast moving forward. High pressure building over the territory this weekend results in much warmer than normal weather.  Expect maximum temperatures away from the immediate coast to rise into the 70s to low 80s, which is 10 – 20 degrees above normal for mid-November. Fuel moistures are expected to drop due to the warm trend combined with breezy north to northeast winds across Northern California this weekend.  Due to lack of precipitation, fuel moistures remain extremely dry for mid-November and generally below critical values.” This forecast is based on weather conditions and fuel moisture content only and does not include other criteria used to determine whether a PSPS may be necessary.

National Weather Service update

The National Weather Service in Sacramento issued their afternoon forecast, which reads, in part:

“Main issue for the extended forecast period is continued concerns for northerly winds, with some increase in confidence. Upper level trough will drop down into a closed low over California mid week. ECMWF ensembles means continue to indicate elevated probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph for the Valley and the Sierra foothills Wednesday into early Thursday. Latest guidance indicates wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range (locally higher) could be possible Wednesday into early Thursday; strongest winds should be on Wednesday.

Despite not expecting excessively low humidity levels, fuels remain at critically dry levels for this time of year due to recent north wind events and little precipitation. Because of this these gusty winds will bring some fire weather concerns. The main areas of concern are currently expected to be along the west side of the Sacramento Valley into Lake County, the northeast Sierra foothills, and portions of the Coastal Range. Lighter winds are expected Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes.

In terms of precipitation, this system could bring some mountain rain or snow showers mainly for areas along and/or south of I-80 per latest deterministic and ensemble output. ECMWF ensemble means suggest modest probabilities of 24-hour QPF > 0.1″ for those areas.”

To recap:

At this time, there is PG&E has not issued any news release or warning regarding a possible power shutoff. Continue to monitor our  updates for any changes or shutoff announces.