October 11, 2019 – Elevated fire weather conditions this morning with breezy winds and low humidity. Decreasing winds this afternoon but relative humidity (RH) remains low. Dry with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week. A chance of showers, mainly northern mountains towards the end of next week.
Discussion
Northerly surface gradient is much lighter this morning than 24 hours ago and winds are lighter most locations. The lighter wind has allowed morning temperatures to drop several degrees from yesterday morning at this time.
Winds are expected to drop off further later this morning and this afternoon as upper level high pressure centers over the west coast. This should allow the red flag warning for the NorCal mountain areas to expire.
As upper high pressure centers over the west coast, daytime highs will warm today reaching right around normal for this time of year. Fair skies, dry conditions, near normal temperatures and relatively light winds will continue going into the weekend as high pressure ridging slides over the west coast. Forecast models in good agreement in bringing a weak trough into the pacific northwest and NorCal on Sunday.
At this time, it appears any precipitation associated with the trough will remain north of the forecast area but it should bring a slight cooling and an increase in southwest winds in the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure moves back over the west coast on monday warming temperatures back up to near normal going into the early part of next week.
Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
EPAC upper ridging moves through Tuesday as upstream Pacific frontal system progresses. High temperatures forecast to be near to slightly below normal. Deterministic models diverge with handling of storm midweek. Operational GFS now has a more northerly track with it, while EC continues to bring some associated precipitation through Wednesday into Friday. GEFS along with EPS/GEPS support a solution more like the EC so will continue to advertise POPs Wednesday into Friday, mainly over the foothills/mountains, north of I-80 for now, and in the Northern Sacramento Valley. Cooling trend Wednesday into Friday with below normal temperatures.