November 6, 2020 – Moderate to locally heavy mountain snow, rain, and below normal temperatures expected today through Sunday. Colder but dry temperatures are expected to persist early next week. Breezy north winds possible Sunday into Monday.
Discussion
Today is when we are expecting significant changes in the weather as the low moves into the area. Some light precipitation is showing up on Radar over Shasta county this morning. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the foothills and mountains but the valley may see some precipitation out of this system.
Breezy conditions this morning as the front moves into the area then they should become lighter this afternoon in the valley. Windy conditions over the ridgetops will also develop as the low moves into the region today. Snow levels will lower during the day and early evening down to around 3500 to 4000 feet. 2 to 5 inches of snow may be possible out of this system mostly over the higher elevations with lessor amounts down to around 4000 feet. Noticeably colder temperatures will occur today as the cold low moves over the region. During the day the atmosphere looks to become unstable and may produce a few thunderstorms around the region mainly afternoon and evening hours. Most areas in the valley will likely see very little precipitation but some local higher amounts possible with convection should it develop.
The low looks to continue to have some impact around the region on Saturday with some showers continuing. The best chances will continue to be over the mountains. One to two inches of snow may be possible with continued cold temperatures, especially for the mountains that looks to get even colder. On Saturday night and Sunday a low will move southward bringing more precipitation to the region. This may bring us even more snowfall over the higher elevations than the first system but models are mixed with the GFS having the highest output and the NAM indicating much lower amounts…(0.75 vs 0.25 inches) liquid equivalent at Blue Canyon. As a result confidence is low on the amount of snow with this second system. Currently we have a foot or more possible over the higher elevations.
Its looking mostly dry over much of the interior on Sunday with some breezy north winds mainly in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds and gusts will be over the westside of the valley. A lighter north wind will continue on Monday and cold lows in the thirties will start the day in the valley. A few of the colder locations will be nearing the freezing mark.
Extended discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Dry and cold weather will start the day on again on Tuesday with temperatures in the 30s for the valley and teens for the mountain valleys. On Tuesday and Wednesday of next week more rain and snow may occur as another low pressure area skirts the region and is looking more like an inside slider type of event at this time. Another system will move towards the region but weakens as it approaches but may bring some showers to the interior for Thursday. For the most part for both events most places should stay dry with the best chances of any precipitation staying over the north and higher elevations of the mountains. Thursday night and Friday looks to be our next best chance of precipitation as currently a stronger system may move into the region. Timing and strength differences exists this far out with the models.