Gusty north to east winds continue today followed by lighter winds and above average temperatures through the rest of the week. Dry weather pattern continues through the middle of the month.

Discussion

Axis of the long wave trof will be moving south and east over the mid and western areas of NOAM today with another day of blustery north to east winds over the CWA. Northerly pressure gradients of about 12 mbs this morning will drive a Nly Barrier Jet southward along the W side of the Sac Vly into the Bay Area early this morning before decreasing to about 7 mbs this afternoon.

The NAM 925 mbs winds show a core of 36-40 kts winds early this morning decreasing to 24-28 kts this afternoon. The wind anomaly charts and ECMWF EFI Wind Gust Forecast Index highlight the West side of the Sac Vly and into the E Bay as the area expected to see anomalous winds in the lower elevations, while a broad area of anomalous 50 kts 700 mbs winds prevails over the higher elevations of NorCal.

Although the northerly winds will weaken for the rest of the week, the strong, persistent and stationary Ern Pac ridge will maintain Nly breezes over NorCal into Sat, with the lightest winds on Fri. A weak short wave moving over the top of the Ern Pac ridge is forecast to drop Swd along the CA coast on Thu continuing breezy winds, but not as strong as today. Some high clouds will move over NorCal with this short wave but no precip will occur.

The Nly flow will preclude fog this week, but widespread frost will likely occur in the Valley Fri morning as winds subside. A gradual warming trend will occur for the rest of the week as 5H heights and 850 mbs temps rebound into the weekend. Mostly highs in the 60s are expected in the Valley with lows dropping into the 30s, possibly approaching freezing as winds subside Fri morning.

This morning Punxsutawney Phil will be coaxed out of his burrow to make his infallible prediction for an early spring or 6 more weeks of winter. Currently skies are clear at Gobbler’s Knob which could signify 6 more weeks of winter according to folklore.

Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry weather with above normal high temperatures as EPAC high builds into the Western U.S. over the weekend into early next week. Locally gusty northeasterly wind possible in the eastern foothills into early Monday. Some patchy overnight frost possible in the Central Valley.