Cooler temperatures through Thursday as a weak system brushes by to the north, then warming into the weekend. Breezy north winds possible over the Sacramento Valley Wednesday and Thursday.
Discussion
An upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning will be followed by a closed low that will reach the Washington and Oregon border late tonight. Initial shortwave trough will exit northern California this morning with shower activity over Shasta county and the southern Cascade Range diminishing.
Broad longwave trough will slowly sag south over California Wednesday and shift east into Nevada Thursday this will cool high temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal levels from the mid/upper 60’s to near 70 degrees for Valley locations.
Dry weather is expected over NorCal in this pattern with the inland track of the trough. Breezy northerly winds will be possible Wednesday and Thursday down the Sacramento Valley, as trough shifts over the Great Basin Region.
Winds are trending up which is typical of this type of pattern. Current gusts over the western Sacramento Valley are 35 to 40 mph Thursday morning.
Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Confidence is high that ridging will build back into the area late this week and over the weekend, allowing for warm and dry conditions to prevail. A gradual warming trend will bring temperatures to above normal by the weekend.
Ensembles and clusters are showing another shortwave trough pushing through the Pacific Northwest for early next week. While confidence isn’t high in the details, current projections and NBM suggest mainly mountain precipitation, with the best potential over the northern portions of our area.