Here comes the Sun

March 8, 2017 – Dry and milder weather thru the weekend with rain chances limited  to the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.

Discussion

Little change over the past 24 hours with partly to mostly cloudy skies to the north of Sacramento while skies to the south are clear. Some light precipitation has occurred overnight across the far northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain. Temperatures also are pretty similar to 24 hours ago except in the mountains where readings are up slightly in the valleys and up considerably across the mid and upper slopes (KBLU is 18 degrees warmer compared to Tuesday morning at this time).

Not a whole lot of change is expected through the remainder of the week. Upper ridging will steer weather systems to the north and just the tail ends will bring slight chances for showers to the far northern portion of the state. Elsewhere, varying amounts of mid and high clouds are expected with a general trend toward milder temperatures.

Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

The trend toward drier, warmer weather continues for the weekend into Monday as upper level ridging dominates. Temperatures should peak Sunday, with widespread highs in the lower 70s in the Valley, potentially reaching the mid 70s in a few spots.

The next potential for precipitation could arrive by Monday night, but model disagreement on this continues. The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all have the ridge shift eastward, with southwest upper flow developing and a gradual cooling trend. The ECMWF has a shortwave pushing through late Monday into Tuesday, bringing some precipitation, mainly to the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley. The ECMWF continues a succession of weak waves like this through the week. The GFS and Canadian are quite a bit slower to bring a wet system in behind the ridge, waiting more towards mid to late week. Will lean towards the wetter ECMWF for now, and see how things develop in future model runs.