Isolated mountain thunderstorms near the Sierra Crest and east of the Crest each afternoon and evening into the weekend. Otherwise quiet and warm.
Discussion
Overall we are not going to see much change in the forecast the next several days. A trough moving into the PacNW will bring slightly lower heights along with increased onshore winds today. That will result in slightly cooler daytime highs.
We will continue to see the cooling trend into Thursday with highs once again a few degrees cooler. We will keep onshore flow into Friday and the weekend but the upper level ridge will push back to the west just a bit and that will warm things back up.
The desert SW ridge will continue to push moisture north into the region. This will keep the thunderstorm threat in the forecast into the weekend. There won’t be much in the way of forcing to kick off any thunderstorms but a few diurnal thunderstorms can be expected.
The majority of the uncapped CAPE will be limited the high Sierra generally from Lake Tahoe south. Given the weak upper level flow and PWATS 0.60-1.0″ locally heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms.
Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Ensembles favor a weak trough developing along the West Coast early next week. Thunderstorm chances expected to continue Sunday along the northern Sierra crest, then the thunderstorm threat is expected to shift east as drier (more stable) mid/upper level airmass moves in with southwesterly flow aloft.
Near normal highs are expected in Delta influenced areas with highs around 5-10 degrees above average for areas further inland.