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August 30, 2019 – Hot and dry weather continues for the next week as temperatures will be slightly above average.

Discussion

Clear skies cover the region early this morning. Current temperatures are a little cooler in most areas compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 40s in the colder mountain valleys to the 60s and lower 70s in the Central Valley.

Little change in the synoptic pattern the next several days as the region will remain between strong high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and a trough off the coast of the PacNW. Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees the next couple of days as onshore flow wanes and the ridge strengthens slightly. Minor fluctuations possible early next week depending on the strength of the Delta Breeze.

Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

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GEF ensembles show general area of troughing over the eastern Pacific at the start of the extended period Tuesday but somewhat of a spread on the members. Operational GFS puts showers over the northern Sierra Tuesday while a more southwest flow on the ECMWF keeps showers south of the CWA. Daytime highs remain a few to several degrees above normal under high pressure ridging. Models hint at edging the offshore troughing a little closer to the coast on Wednesday for a little cooling but daytime highs still expected to come in a little above normal. For now, have kept monsoon moisture and showers/thunderstorms out of the forecast for Wednesday as well.

Little overall change expected for Thursday but models hinting more strongly at bringing some monsoon moisture northward up the Sierra so have included some scattered shower/thunderstorm activity along the crest Thursday afternoon. At this time, a more southwest flow aloft is indicated for the end of next week so kept showers out of the Sierra forecast for Friday and cooled daytime highs back down to around normal for this time of year.