Overall a somewhat low impact but unsettled forecast next 7 days. Light valley showers (possibly a thunderstorm east and south of Sacramento this evening) tonight and morning Saturday. Gusty winds this evening in the Delta area and northern San Joaquin Valley. Snow tonight into Saturday afternoon with some travel impacts mountains. Pattern then turns dry and breezy at times next week.
Discussion
Ensembles showing a closed upper low dropping south into California tonight originating from Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the system gusty winds still look at track for the Delta and far north and west portions of Northern San Joaquin Valley and current wind advisory looks like a good call. EFI values highlighting this area as well and expect gusts up to around 40 mph for a fairly brief time ending by around midnight.
Also this evening some instability progged by NAM and HRRR east and south of Sacramento also picked up by also by CAMs showing a few thunderstorms possible this evening. Looks to be pretty widespread but some lightning and small hail will be possible.
Overnight as upper low slides over the top of the area don’t expect much more than isolated light showers in the valley but snow will occur in the mountains with snow levels dropping to near 2,000 feet by sunrise. This will bring some light accumulations to upper foot hills but shouldn’t be much of an impact.
Snow at highest elevations not expected to be too high either with maybe a foot at highest elevations but any weekend travel will surely be impacted this evening and overnight into morning hours at least some. Light snow should continue early morning Saturday but overall drying out from this quick moving system. Sunday northerly flow aloft continues with main energy and moisture well to the south for a clear dry day.
Monday, some energy does pass to our east which will set up breezy west valley winds. Not looking to be a wind advisory threat as of right now but just a continued fall look to pattern with dry and breezy conditions.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Unfortunately upper pattern in the extended period looking more like Fall than winter/spring, definitely not a wet pattern. Model clusters are in agreement that generally a large scale trough to be in place over the central U.S. with ridging off the west coast. Some differences with energy on the west side of the trough over the west coast but only to spell differences in when it will be windiest not the wettest.
Right now EC Ensemble members showing and supported by NBM wind grids that next round of wind would possibly be Thursday into Friday. Will keep an eye on this as it approaches of course as it may approach lower impact wind advisory criteria.