Quiet weather week ahead

May 14, 2018 – Mild temperatures continue for the next week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible over higher terrain for much of this week with a chance of showers across the region Wednesday.

Discussion

Clear to partly cloudy skies across the region early this morning as the closed low continues to spin across eastern Nevada. Current temperatures are similar to 24 hours ago and range from the 40s in the mountain valleys to the 50s and lower 60s elsewhere. Steady onshore flow continues with gusts around 30 mph in the Delta and locally around 15-20 mph in the Sacramento area.

Little change expected today and Tuesday with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms possibly over the mountains. Temperatures will remain quite warm inland away from the influence of the Delta Breeze.

Cooler weather along with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday as the next closes low (presently just to the NE of 30N/140W) moves overhead NorCal. System is forecast to shift east Thursday with most shower activity expected to be confined once again to the mountains.

Extended discussion (Friday through Monday)

Model discrepancies through the extended lead to some forecast uncertainty. EC showing more troughing aloft Friday into Saturday while GFS maintains upper ridging. By Sunday, EC has upper low over CA while GFS has upper low farther north over PacNW. Models progress this feature into the Great Basin Basin Monday. For now forecast has a slight chance of mountains showers or afternoon thunderstorms Friday through Sunday with drier weather Monday. Little change in high temperatures expected through the extended with 80s in the Central Valley and 60s to 70s for the mountains and foothills.