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October 24, 2019 – Strong northerly winds, with elevated fire weather concerns, decrease later today. Dry weather with above average temperatures forecast through the remainder of the week. Another strong wind event possible late in the weekend and early next week.

Discussion

Some high clouds spilling into NorCal from the north, otherwise skies are clear early this morning. Breezy north winds of 15-25 mph continue across the northern Sacramento Valley, and along the western edge of the valley, while local northeast to east winds of 20-40 mph persist over the foothills and west slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada. Pressure gradients remain tight, but have begun to decrease a bit compared to Wednesday evening (KMFR-KSAC still over 11 mbs while the KRNO-KSAC is now a little below 11 mbs).

Warm and dry conditions will continue into the weekend with fire weather concerns remaining at the forefront. Pressure gradients will relax considerably this afternoon, but some easterly gradient will linger tonight into early Friday resulting in some local breeziness over the northern Sierra, but not as strong as currently.

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Latest ops model runs are in better agreement with the ensemble mean advertising another strong trough moving over the ridge late in the weekend (EC still the furthest west). The pattern would result in another strong north/northeast wind event beginning Saturday night and continuing through at least Sunday. Current forecasts indicate the potential for north winds to be stronger than the current event.

Temperatures will remain well above average through Saturday, but will cool considerably early next week.

Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

A quiet weather period is expected for the extended period, with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Some breezy northerly winds are possible Monday, but they should be quite a bit lighter than what is forecast for the day before (Sunday). They could be enough when coupled with poor humidity recovery overnight and low afternoon humidity levels to continue fire weather concerns through Monday, though. Lighter winds and gradually improving humidity levels are expected through mid week.