February 3, 2021 – Showers persist across the region into this evening with accumulating snow across the mountains. Dry weather returns Thursday through the weekend with occasionally breezy north to east winds.
Discussion
Brief break in precip across the region early this morning as radar indicates only a few flurries remaining across the higher elevations while satellite imagery indicates most of the Central Valley has cleared out. Current temperatures are considerably cooler, 10-15 degrees, across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago.
Next system centered near the mouth of the Columbia River early this morning will moves southeast today brushing NorCal and bringing another round of showers to the region. Heavier QPF (around 1/4 to 1/2 inch) will be focused over the mountains while the valley will see generally less than 1/10 of an inch. Additional snowfall of 2-4 inches with local amounts up to around 6 inches will occur this morning over the northern mountains, and this afternoon into early this evening across the northern Sierra (mainly to the north of Highway 50).
Ensembles and clusters are in agreement with trough shifting east Thursday and Friday with eastern Pacific high edging east into NorCal. This will bring a drying and warming trend. Locally breezy north to east winds are possible Thursday, though gusts will generally remain less than 30 mph.
Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Model agreement that Sunday should remain dry under upper level ridging. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week as deterministic models diverge. NBM suggests some low POPs mainly over the mountains Tuesday into Wednesday, however ensembles are suggesting upper ridging may remain dominant feature into the middle of next week.