Showers tapering off today, next system arrives Wednesday

November 6, 2017 – Some light rain and mountain snow possible, mainly in the north, today into early Monday, otherwise dry into Tuesday with minor warming. Wet weather returns Wednesday into Friday.

Discussion

Varying amounts of mid-clouds continue across the region, mainly over the mountains. This should be enough to preclude much fog formation in the valley early this morning. Current temperatures are running pretty similar to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 30s in the mountains to the upper 30s to upper 40s in the Central Valley.

System over centered over southern Oregon will skirt northeast California and may generate a few showers across the far northern Sierra Nevada and extreme southern Cascade Range this morning. Otherwise, short-wave ridging will result in dry weather across the area through Tuesday night. Daytime temperatures will be a little warmer today and Tuesday, but clearing skies tonight will allow many areas to see the coolest temperatures so far this season by early Tuesday.

Models showing fully mature extra-tropical cyclone impacting the region Wednesday. IVT progs reveal good moisture plume associated with the baroclinic zone. This system looks to be a more significant precipitation producer than last week’s with widespread valley rain and mountain snow. Breezy to windy conditions can also be expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another system follows Thursday with lowering snow levels.

Extended discussion (Friday through Monday)

Frontal system moves through Friday followed by a brief dry period Saturday as weak short wave ridging moves through. Forecast confidence decreases as models differ with progression of next Pacific storm. EC begins to spread precip with next system over areas north of I-80 Sunday, while GFS holds out until Monday. Both models showing widespread precip over the CWA Monday.