Cool and dry weather today. Valley rain and mountain snow chances return over the weekend with heavy mountain snow possible next week. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada- Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Discussion
Considerable cloudiness spilling through the short-wave ridge has spread south into NorCal during the past couple of hours ending the threat of widespread frost in the valley and foothills as temperatures have held in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The frost advisory has been cancelled.
Dry weather will continue today with lighter winds and milder temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s across the Central Valley with 40s and 50s in the mountains, still around 5-10 degrees below average for early November.
Clouds will begin to increase again over NorCal tonight as the strong AR over the PacNW begins to drop south. Overnight lows will be milder compared to the past couple nights. The AR and accompanying front will weaken as it moves south into the region on Saturday with mainly light to moderate QPF. Rising snow levels will limit accumulating snowfall to near the higher pass levels where a few inches will be possible.
NorCal will be in-between systems on Sunday with some light precipitation continuing in the mountains. The valley is expected to remain dry through most of the day with breezy southerly winds picking up as the next front approaches.
Stronger cold front moves south Sunday night and Monday and will mark the beginning of several days of more impactful weather with gusty winds, heavy snow in the mountains and rain across the lower elevations.
Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Clusters and ensembles remain in remarkable agreement into the middle of next week with the anomalously cold trough remaining in place leading to several days of heavy mountain snow (several feet of accumulation likely above 4-5k ft). Severe travel impacts, more typical of mid-winter, can be expected across the mountain passes with several days of disruption possible.
Stay tuned for updates! A break in the weather may develop later Wednesday before another system approaches late in the week.