April 9, 2021 – Very dry and warm with above average temperatures into next week. Potentially breezy early next week.
Discussion
Other than a few high clouds moving into NorCal from the west, skies are clear across the region early this morning. Current temperatures are generally running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago across most of the area and range from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to the upper 40s and 50s across the Central Valley and foothills.
The marine layer is mostly mixed out and quite shallow, so not expecting too much cooling today across the Delta and southern Sacramento Valley from a moderate Delta Breeze. Otherwise, high pressure will lead to warmer temperatures the next several days with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s across the Central Valley on Sunday and Monday.
Ensembles and latest deterministic runs continue to point toward some retrogression of the trough over the western US early next week which will affect how much north and east breeziness we’ll see. Nevertheless, we will likely see the very dry pattern continue with gusts above 20 mph in the Sacramento Valley beginning Monday.
Extended discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Models showing large upper low dropping into the Great Basin Tuesday into Wednesday with embedded vort lobes rotating N to S through interior NorCal. Moisture looks limited, however enough dynamics to support a threat of showers over the higher terrain of Western Plumas and northern Sierra Nevada. Some breezy north to east possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Main upper low remains over the Great Basin and elongates Thursday into Friday with weaker vorticity maxima progged over the CWA. Attm will maintain a drier forecast for this time period. High temperatures progged to remain about 10 degrees above normal through the extended forecast period.