Dry, mild weather throughout the week with patchy morning fog. A weaker system brings showers and mountain snow late Sunday into early Tuesday next week. Stronger storms arrives late next week-next weekend bringing periods of rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. Still some uncertainty on exact details.
Discussion
High pressure will be the dominant factor over the region through Saturday. Temperatures will warm each day with the north end of the valley seeing some lower 70 degree heat today. By Saturday temperature should warm into the lower 70s for most valley locations and be in the 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals range.
A few patches of fog through the central part of the valley and in the Delta will be possible this morning.
Sunday will be a transition day with most of the day dry but increasing clouds from the closed low off the coast will help to cool temperatures for the valley back into the 60s.
Sunday night looks to be the earliest for any possible precipitation as the low pressure off the coast directs the sub-tropical jet northward into the southern parts of the forecast area. A different low pressure system will drop south from British Columbia and move through the region on Monday.
It is currently projected to move further east bringing less rain and snow to the region than earlier indicated. Colder air associated with this system will not be as cold and there is a drastic reduction in the potential for thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts have almost halved but a good amount of snow is still forecast to occur south of Plumas County above 6500 feet with 6 to 12 inches currently forecasted over the higher elevations. Light amounts of rain are forecast for the valley.
Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Drier weather expected Tuesday as short wave trough kicks east and upstream EPAC upper ridging builds inland over NorCal. NBM spreads some precip over the northern third of the CWA Wednesday, however this looks premature as upper ridging likely to slow progression of next storm. Upper ridge progresses enough by Thursday to allow precip with next upstream short wave to spread into the CWA.
Widespread light to moderate precip expected later Thursday into Friday.
Snow levels Thursday begin around 4500 to 5500 feet but lower to 3000 to 4000 feet by Friday.