The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. All the reported findings are based on computer-generated analyses and according to the ERA5 dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

Annual global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from 1940 to 2024. The estimate for 2024 is provisional and based on data from January to October. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.
Annual global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from 1940 to 2024. The estimate for 2024 is provisional and based on data from January to October. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.

October 2024 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights

Global temperature 

  • October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average for October.      
  • October 2024 was 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels****.   
  • The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.  
  • The average global temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024 (January to October) is 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023.  It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year.
  • Given that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial level according to ERA5, it is likewise virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 from ERA5 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, and likely that it will be more than 1.55°C above.

Europe and other regions 

  • The average temperature over European land for October 2024 was 10.83°C, 1.23°C above the 1991-2020 average for October, making the month the 5th warmest October on record for Europe. October 2022 is the warmest October on record, at 1.92°C above average. 
  • European temperatures were above average over almost all of the continent. 
  • Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over northern Canada, and well-above average over the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia. 
  • Temperatures were most notably below average over central Greenland and Iceland.

Sea surface temperature

  • The average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.68°C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.10°C below October 2023. 
  • The equatorial eastern and central Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a move towards La Niña conditions, but SSTs across the ocean remained unusually high over many regions.   

According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ” After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.”

Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to October 2024, plotted as time series for each year. 2024 is shown with a thick red line, 2023 with a thick orange line, and all other years with thin grey lines. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.
Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to October 2024, plotted as time series for each year. 2024 is shown with a thick red line, 2023 with a thick orange line, and all other years with thin grey lines. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.

October 2024 – Sea ice highlights

  • Arctic sea ice reached its 4th lowest monthly extent for October, at 19% below average.  
  • Sea ice concentration anomalies were well below average in all peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Barents Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and north of Svalbard. 
  • Antarctic sea ice extent was the second lowest for October, at 8% below average, behind October 2023 (-11%), continuing a series of large negative anomalies observed throughout 2023 and 2024.  
  • Sea ice concentration anomalies in the Southern Ocean continued to be dominated by much below-average concentrations in the Indian Ocean sector, as they have been since July. 

October 2024 – Hydrological variables highlights

  • October 2024 saw above-average precipitation across the Iberian Peninsula, France, northern Italy, Norway, northern Sweden, and east of the Black Sea. Heavy precipitation led to severe flash flooding in the region of Valencia, Spain, with over 200 fatalities. 
  • Precipitation and soil moisture were below average in the majority of eastern Europe, particularly in western Russia, Greece, and western Türkiye. 
  • Wetter-than-average conditions were seen in southern and eastern China, Taiwan, Florida (United States), parts of western Australia, and southernmost Brazil. Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene.  
  • Drier-than-average conditions were seen across most of the United States, the central lowlands of Australia, much of southern Africa and Madagascar, and parts of Argentina and Chile. The ongoing drought across the United States is affecting a record number of people.