June 23, 2025 – As the Senate considers budget reconciliation language, a new report from the Commonwealth Fund and the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health offers an early look at the potential economic consequences of the House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which proposes deep cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The analysis projects that in 2029, when the changes are fully implemented, these cuts could lead to the loss of 1.22 million jobs nationwide. The report includes the projected economic fallout for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Nearly half of the jobs lost would be in health care, potentially causing crippling harm to hospitals and clinics across the country. The study finds that states would lose significantly more in jobs, economic activity, and tax revenue than the federal government would save. In 2029 alone, state economies are projected to lose $154 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) from the Medicaid and SNAP cuts — 18 percent more than the $131 billion in federal savings expected that year. The report also estimates $12.2 billion in lost state and local tax revenue.

Over the next 10 years, the House bill would reduce federal Medicaid funding by $863 billion and SNAP funding by $295 billion. States with higher poverty rates would likely be hit hardest, widening existing regional health and economic disparities.

Although the Senate version of the bill is not final, current proposals suggest it may include deeper cuts, which could exacerbate the economic harm for states, businesses and communities, unless major changes are adopted.

“Medicaid and SNAP aren’t just safety-net programs — they’re economic engines,” said Leighton Ku, Ph.D., M.P.H., lead author and Director of the Center for Health Policy Research at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. “Cuts of this magnitude would harm millions of families and destabilize state economies, triggering a devastating number of job losses and fiscal strain.”

“Health and economic well-being are inextricably linked, and as a physician, I see this every day. I know how devastating it is when patients lose access to care and basic necessities like food,” said Joseph R. Betancourt, M.D., President of the Commonwealth Fund. “Slashing Medicaid on this scale will leave millions uninsured, impact everyone as providers are overwhelmed by a growing burden of preventable illness, and worsen the health of all Americans, especially vulnerable populations and those living in rural areas.”

Read the full report here: How Medicaid and SNAP Cutbacks in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Would Trigger Big and Bigger Job Losses Across States