Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, […]
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April was an active month for tornadoes, wildfires and late-season winter weather
Key Points: The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in April was 50.7°F, which is 0.4°F below average, ranking in the middle third of the 128-year record. Generally, temperatures from the Northwest to the Great Lakes and into the mid-Mississippi Valley were below average, with much of the Southwest, Deep South and portions of the […]
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Earth had its Fifth-warmest March on Record
The global temperature for March 2022 was the fifth highest for March in the 143-year NOAA record, which dates back to 1880. The year-to-date (January-March) global surface temperature was also the fifth warmest such period on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, it is virtually certain (> 99.0%) that the year 2022 […]
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October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here!
Our second-year La Niña has materialized, as indicated by the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There’s an 87% chance of La Niña this winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most affected by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño/La Niña system). The winning numbers The first step on our […]
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U.S. hit with 18 billion-dollar disasters so far this year
The United States saw an unprecedented 18 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the first nine months of the year, according to scientists with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Not only was September 2021 quite warm, but it also brought with it devastating impacts from four of the 18 disasters: flooding from Hurricane […]
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Summer 2021 neck and neck with Dust Bowl summer for hottest on record
Last month brought Hurricane Ida, numerous wildfires and devastating floods, capping off a summer of record heat and rainfall for many states throughout the country. A summary of key findings from NOAA’s latest monthly U.S. climate report follows: Climate by the numbers Meteorological summer | June through August The average temperature during meteorological summer for the contiguous […]
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It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record
July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but […]
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NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. For 2021, a likely range of […]
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May 2021 ENSO update: bye for now, La Niña!
La Niña conditions have ended and NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year La Niña currently hovering around 50–55%. Spring cleaning If you’ve been paying very close attention to the surface temperature of the tropical […]
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NOAA: The new U.S. Climate Normals are here. What do they tell us about climate change?
Every 10 years, NOAA releases an analysis of U.S. weather of the past three decades that calculates average values for temperature, rainfall and other conditions. That time has come again. Known as the U.S. Climate Normals, these 30-year averages — now spanning 1991-2020 — represent the new “normals” of our changing climate. They are calculated using climate […]
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‘Average’ Atlantic hurricane season to reflect more storms
April 9, 2021 – Beginning with this year’s hurricane season outlooks, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will use 1991-2020 as the new 30-year period of record. The updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged […]
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Spring Outlook: Drought to persist, expand in U.S. West and High Plains
Nearly one-half of the country — stretching from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains and upper Midwest — is currently experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions, and that is expected to continue and expand according to NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook released today. Drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. associated with La Niña and the […]
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Keeping score: The groundhog vs. the temperature record, 2021
February 2, 2021 – 10 contacted NID In Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, at the crack of dawn this morning, the nation’s most famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow — meaning six more weeks of winter, according to longstanding folkloreoffsite link. How accurate was Phil’s 2020 ‘forecast’? Last year, Phil “predicted” a shorter winter and early spring when official observers declared he did not see his shadow. But in fact, […]
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Fire fuels in high northern latitudes are becoming more flammable
December 14, 2020 – In the 2020 issue of NOAA’s Arctic Report Card, experts reported on the evolving wildfire landscape across the taiga—the boggy, coniferous forests that occupy much of the high northern latitudes. Rising air temperature and fuel availability over the past 41 years indicate that conditions in Earth’s largest terrestrial biome are becoming more […]
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La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21
December 10, 2020 – La Niña persisted during November, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most of the weekly indices fluctuated through the month, with the westernmost Niño regions Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 ending up around -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. The negative equatorial subsurface […]
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Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end
November 24, 2020 – The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close with a record-breaking 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the continental United States. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to develop past that day. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks accurately predicted […]
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Winter outlook forecasts cooler North, warmer South with ongoing La Nina
October 15, 2020 – NOAA’s winter forecast for the U.S. favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North, thanks in part to an ongoing La Nina. Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — are also closely monitoring persistent drought […]
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NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal 2019 Second Warmest Year on Record
January 15, 2020 -According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth’s global surface temperatures in 2019 were the second warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. Globally, 2019 temperatures were second only to those of 2016 and continued the planet’s long-term warming trend: the past five years have […]
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U.S. Winter Outlook: NOAA forecasters predict above-average temperatures, wetter North
October 17, 2019 – Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter. Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. during winter, which […]
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Warmest June on record for the globe, record-low Antarctic sea ice extent
July 18, 2019 – The global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average for June 2019 was the highest for the month of June in the 140-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880. The year-to-date temperature for 2019 was the second warmest January–June on record. This monthly summary, developed by […]