Dry and mild weather continues this week with patches of dense late night and morning fog possible in the Central Valley. Local north to east breezes today and Wednesday. Precipitation chances possibly return next week.
Discussion
Water vapor imagery shows the clearly defined short-wave to our east dropping south into the Great Basin while clear skies cover interior NorCal early this morning as we remain downstream from the strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. IR difference imagery is already beginning to pick up some signs of patchy fog development down the center of the Central Valley from west of Oroville south into the northern San Joaquin Valley. KSAC visibility already briefly dropped below 1 mile, and KSMF obs indicate fog already brewing around the Sacramento airport.
Dew points remain in the mid to upper 30s and current temperatures are a bit cooler, so may end up seeing a bit more extensive valley fog this morning.
North to east winds will begin to pick up across the region this morning as surface pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the short-wave as it drops south toward northern Arizona later today.
Winds won’t be as strong as this past weekend, but we’ll still see some gusts around 30 mph in the Sacramento Valley, and 30-50 mph in the favored windy spots over the northern Sierra. Winds are forecast to decrease by early Wednesday, then a second weaker short-wave drops down in northwest flow later Wednesday and will bring another round of north/northeast winds in its wake Wednesday night into Thursday.
After this morning, late night and morning valley fog will likely be more limited as the airmass dries a bit due to the north winds. May see more extensive morning frost mid to late week in the wind-sheltered areas along the eastern edge of the valley. Otherwise, dry weather will continue with mild daytime temperatures.
Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Clusters continue to indicate much uncertainty in the forecast for late this weekend into early next week. Per the previous extended discussion, the forecast is not suggesting a major event with about equal chances for above/below normal precipitation amounts for this time of year. QPF amounts have decreased with latest model runs and timing for any potential precipitation has been pushed back as well. Changes are likely to occur for this potential pattern change. Keep up to date with the forecast for the latest information.