December 30, 2019 – Dry weather returns today with breezy northerly winds. Dry weather continues into early next year with a chance for precipitation returning this weekend.
Discussion
Satellite imagery shows the closed low dropping quickly southward off the central California coast. Radar indicates remaining showers have mostly ended across the southern portion of the forecast area. Patches of fog have developed where skies have cleared, but increasing north winds will likely result in the fog being short-lived in most areas. Current temperatures range from the upper 20s and 30s in the mountains to the 40s across the Central Valley.
The remainder of the week is expected to be mainly dry across interior NorCal with temperatures a little above average as we head into the new year/decade. Ridging from the eastern Pacific shifts the storm track well north of the area except for Tuesday when a passing short-wave may bring some light precipitation to mainly the northern mountains.
Breezy northerly winds expected today into Tuesday morning as surface gradients tighten supported by stronger winds aloft. Winds are expected to taper off later Tuesday afternoon as gradients slacken. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected.
Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Models and ensemble guidance have trended drier with the next chance of precipitation occurring Friday into Saturday. This is when a disturbance is forecast to pass to the north of us which could bring some showers to the mountains and northern portion of the Valley. After that, ensemble guidance shows the eastern Pacific ridge building back in which should keep weather dry through weekend and into early next week. Deterministic models deviate somewhat from this and suggest the possibility of some showers over head. Ended up going with the drier ensemble forecast for majority of the extended period.