March 30, 2021 – Dry and breezy today. Warm Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler temperatures and shower chances return this weekend.
Discussion
Large scale upper trough is over the the Rockies and Great Basin region with upper high over the eastern Pacific. Strong pressure between these features over NorCal today will bring breezy north winds with a few gusts to 40 mph over the Sacramento Valley into the Delta.
Gusty downslope east winds(a few gusts to 40 mph) over the Sierra this morning with colder air dropping south on the eastside of the crest will diminish this afternoon. Upper high will begin building east this afternoon pushing Valley high temperatures into the upper 70’s.
Ensembles and clusters are in good agreement with ridge remaining over the area Wednesday through Friday with temperatures warming to 80 to 85 degrees at Valley locations.
Upper end of NBM guidance suggests a possible warmer trend to the upper 80’s over the next few model runs.
Record highs are around 90 degrees at most locations Wed/Thurs.
Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Dry weather expected Saturday into Sunday as upper ridging moves into the Great Basin and upstream Pacific storm approaches. Models and ensembles differ with strength and timing of this system.
Forecast attm leans towards EC/NBM solutions with a threat of generally light precipitation spreading across into interior NorCal Sunday night into Monday.
System progged to be slow mover with threat of mountain showers continuing Tuesday. Cooling trend forecast through the extended period with high temperatures returning to near normal by Tuesday.