October 7, 2018 – Breezy to locally windy conditions with dry north winds today increasing fire danger. Less windy on Monday. Temperatures remaining near average over the next week.
Discussion
The MFR-SAC gradient remains around 11-12 mbs and the KDAX VWP continues to show winds of 45-50 kts at 1-3K ft above the surface. A shallow radiative inversion is keeping these stronger winds aloft for now, though local gusts over 30 mph have been reported at spots along the west side of the Sacramento Valley.
It will be windy across a good portion of interior NorCal today as the region is on the backside of the large trough developing over the West. Winds will pick up this morning after sunrise as mixing of the lower atmosphere develops. The winds along with lowering humidity will result in areas of elevated fire weather concerns.
Gradients slacken a bit tonight and Monday allowing winds to subside through the Central Valley this evening before picking up again Monday as daytime mixing develops. Temperatures will be close to average the next few day, then are expected to cool slightly by mid-week as system drops down from the north. This feature may bring a few showers to the northern Sierra Wednesday.
Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Stronger short-wave forecast to crest the eastern Pacific ridge and exit to the south early Thursday. There could be a few residual showers in the Sierra Thursday, otherwise dry and milder weather is expected heading into next weekend.