October 12, 2017 – Dry with cooler temperatures for next few days. Northerly winds breezy to gusty bringing critical fire weather conditions today and again this weekend.
Forecast still on track with the primary fire weather concern being breezy to gusty winds today, then again on the weekend.
Clear skies prevail across interior Northern California, in the wake of a dry frontal passage yesterday. Gusty north winds have picked up behind this front, with local gusts to 35 mph being reported over the Sacramento Valley early this morning. Visibility has generally improved a bit this morning compared to the last few nights, probably owing to these increased winds. Humidity values are also extremely dry…with most locations only rebounding to 30-50 percent this morning. A Red Flag Warning will remain in place across much of the region through today. Winds will diminish a bit this afternoon and tonight.
High temperatures the next few days will be a few degrees cooler than normal owing to this cooler airmass.
The next frontal system will begin to drop southward across Northern California late Friday into the weekend. Precipitation will remain mainly north of our forecast area with that system, not unlike our current windy pattern. That system is currently modeled to take a trajectory that would be a bit windier than our current event, though not nearly as strong as the recent winds from Sunday, October 8. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued to highlight concerns with the upcoming weekend event.
Extended discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Weak ridging over the region on Monday will lead to above normal temperatures for Monday by 5 to 10 degrees. A weak trough will approach and pass through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night but any precipitation will remain well north of the area. The main impact will be to cool temperatures off to around seasonal normals. Continued cooling on Wednesday as a trough deepens along the west coast. Wednesday night into Thursday there will be a more significant pattern change. Some model timing differences exist but all models are indicating some much needed rainfall will move through the northern third of the state.