Dry and mild today, a few clouds but no precip over the weekend

February 14, 2020 – Dry except a chance of light showers over mainly the mountains this weekend. Above average temperatures continue. Breezy winds early next week.

Discussion

Clear skies and light winds across the area early this morning. IR-difference imagery shows stratus socked in across the Bay Area. Profiler data indicate its depth around 2k ft. Surface pressure gradients have trended light onshore from the coast, so there is a non-zero chance of seeing some early morning stratus around the Sacramento region. Current temperatures range from the 20s to lower 30s in the mountain valleys to the lower to mid 40s across the Central Valley.

System passing to our north through the PacNW early this morning have little effect over NorCal. Ridging over the eastern Pacific will extend into NorCal again today and persist into Saturday continuing the period of dry and mild weather across the region. Increasing high clouds will likely begin to spill over the ridge into the area on Saturday.

Next system brushes across the area Saturday night into Sunday, but similar to the past several systems, little if any precipitation is expected. Light showers are generally limited to the higher mountain elevations. In the Valley, slightly cooler temperatures and cloudy skies are expected Sunday.

Clearing skies behind the system on Monday with breezy northerly winds increasing across the area.

Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

On Tuesday, amplified flow to the east will maintain tight height/pressure gradients over the region. This allows for another day of dry, gusty north to easterly flow accompanied by low daytime relative humidities. By the middle of next week, the guidance continues to advertise a positively-tilted trough setting up over the southwestern U.S. Poor run-to-run model continuity fosters a low confidence forecast here. Depending on the position of this trough, further breezy winds may continue into Wednesday, perhaps slightly longer. Eventually the upstream flow across the Pacific becomes split in nature while above average heights remain in place. Any discernible systems either set up well to the south toward Baja California, or remain weak and pass by to the north. Abundant sunshine and mild temperatures will remain the norm with winds gradually slackening by perhaps Thursday. Daily highs generally to sit around 3 to 6 degrees above climatology.