Dry and mild today, chances of light precip on Thursday

March 14, 2017 – Work week continues with dry and mild weather. The next chance for precipitation returns to Wednesday into early Thursday for areas north of Interstate 80. Dry again on Friday with additional showers possible this weekend.

Discussion (Today through Friday)

A system will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest on today and begin to weaken the ridge and help to bring slightly cooler temperatures for the northern half of the CWA to near the same temperatures for the southern half.

The both the 00Z NAM and GFS are indicating this system may be a little bit wetter than earlier projected and the trough a little bit deeper. The NAM is slightly deeper and wetter than the GFS. Overall its not a big system and snow levels will remain high enough to not be an impact but light amounts of rainfall down through the Sacramento area look possible.

On Thursday the system will be moving east of the area and a few lingering showers may persist over the mountains during the morning before ending. The flow will remain zonal over the area for Thursday with weak ridging by Friday ahead of the next weather system that will allow temperatures to warm up a little.

Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Highs will remain above average through Saturday but will cool down temperatures return to near average. Weak disturbances will bring showery activity to the interior mountains this weekend but QPF amounts continue to look light, generally less than 0.25 inches for most locations. Monday will generally be between systems with a few lingering showers possible but for the most part should stay dry. A deeper, wetter and colder system will move into the region Monday night and Tuesday. There is some model uncertainty regarding timing and details of this system but it could bring widespread rain, as well as breezy winds. Snow levels will start near 7000 feet but could lower on Tuesday down to between 5500 and 6000 feet.

Another storm will move in on the heals of the Monday night and Tuesday’s system on Wednesday. This one may end up being a little wetter and windier than Tuesday’s storm with snow continuing below major pass levels in the Sierra Nevada per the GFS. The European is indicating the Tuesday’s system is wetter so some discrepancy exist in the amount of precipitation but both models indicate wet weather during the same periods.