Dry and mild weather continues this week with patches of dense late night and morning fog possible in the Central Valley. Precipitation chances possibly return next week.
Discussion
Clear skies persist as the region remains downstream of strong mid/upper ridging off the West Coast. Valley fog/stratus is more limited early this morning (visibility is currently around 2-4 miles south of Sacramento) as dew point are mostly down several degrees compared to 24 hours ago, perhaps due to continuing subsidence and lighter easterly surface flow over the area. We`ll likely see some patchy dense fog around sunrise along the Sacramento River and in the northern San Joaquin Valley lasting until mid to late morning.
Dry and mild weather will continue this week as the ridge remains to our west resulting in northerly flow aloft. Highs will remain around 5-15 degrees above average while overnight lows will be chilly for most areas given the dry airmass and relatively cloud- free skies.
Some patches of late night and morning valley fog and frost will be possible, though the return of north to east surface flow may mitigate this. The short-wave currently over BC will slide south into the Great Basin later tonight and early Tuesday.
The result will be another bout of north to east winds in its wake over interior NorCal on Tuesday. The surface gradient won’t be as strong as this past weekend’s system, but we’re still likely to see 20-30 mph gusts in the Sacramento Valley with 30-50 mph gusts over the higher elevations and ridges in the northern Sierra.
Another weaker short-wave is forecast to move into the Great Basin on Wednesday continuing the offshore surface pattern.
Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Mainly dry and mild weather throughout the extended period. Daytime highs continue to trend a few degrees above normal, with near normal lows. Valley fog remains possible through the weekend as ridging looks to be the prominent feature. Cluster analysis hints that a pattern change may be possible Sunday into early next week, with a few clusters depicting troughing across the PacNW. Continued with the NBM PoPs in the extended due to this uncertainty, although the better chances for any precipitation look to be more towards Monday into mid next week.