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October 16, 2018 – Warm and dry weather continues this week. Locally gusty easterly winds continue in the Sierra and foothills this morning.

Discussion

Satellite imagery indicates the area of stronger subsidence has shifted south. Easterly pressure gradients remain tight (RNO-SAC is around 8.5 mbs), but a little weaker compared to 24 hours ago. Still seeing local wind gusts in the 30-50 mph range across the northern Sierra west slopes and foothills. Dry weather with mild days and cool nights will continue through the week as the ridge over the eastern Pacific moves onto the West Coast. Enough easterly gradient lingers tonight for continued locally breezy conditions in the Sierra, but likely weaker than the past couple of nights.

Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Weekend starts out with a Rex type block pattern over the west coast with upper level high pressure ridge over the Pacific Northwest and NorCal and a low off the SoCal coast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will remain a few to several degrees above normal with relatively low humidity but winds should be relatively light.

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Upper ridge is forecast to shift inland early next week bringing a cooling trend down to slightly above normal. A weak Pacific storm system is forecast by the ECMWF to bring a threat of precipitation to the northern CWA next Tuesday. GFS keeps this system a bit farther north keeping any precip threat north of the forecast area. Both models have been consistent with their solutions over the last couple runs but model to model discrepancy brings low confidence in end of extended forecast. For now, took a middle of the road approach keeping precipitation chances low for this time frame. Either way, slightly more cooling should bring daytime temperatures down to normal.