Mostly dry and chilly weather until next year

December 26, 2019 – Dry weather into the weekend with light showers possible on Sunday. Dry conditions return for the end of the year into the new year.

Discussion

The trough that brought us light showers on Christmas day continues to push to the east southeast over SoCal. A few light showers will be possible over southern Stanislaus County over the next 1-2 hours before the trough pushes far enough south to push the shower chances out of our area.

Breezy north winds will develop this afternoon as an upper level ridge begins to build into the region. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will be possible through the afternoon. The upper level ridge will bring quiet weather for Friday and for the start of the weekend. We will see cold overnight lows though and patchy frost will be possible, although north winds will keep things pretty dry.

The ridge will push to the east on Saturday and we will see a trough drop down from the north. This will bring the chance for light showers across the area starting Sunday morning and continuing into Sunday evening. Overall forcing will be weak and there will not be a ton of moisture to work with. This will keep showers light and widely scattered. Snow levels are expected to be between 4000 and 5000 feet but locally lower over Shasta County. The trough is forecasted to close off over SoCal on Tuesday with upper level ridge building in from the north. Shower chances are expected to push south by Monday morning with dry weather for the start of next week.

Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Model and ensemble guidance continue to show an upper level low moving into the region. Guidance on the exact location remains fairly spread out with the ensemble guidance continuing to favor the CA/NV border. An upper low approaching the region on Sunday still exhibits quite a bit of model spread. This system is expected to make a southward turn at some point with the ensemble means favoring this to occur somewhere along the California/Nevada border. NBM guidance keeps interior northern CA dry at this time, but just to our north and west, mountain showers will be possible. Overall, the extended forecast looks to be dry.