March 31, 2020 – Threat of showers persists across far northern California today, otherwise dry and milder this week. Breezy northerly winds expected by mid-week. Chance of precipitation returns over the weekend.
Discussion
Strong mid-level jet, beneath the upper trough centered over BC, continues to force light precipitation across the far northern portion of California. Radar shows some light showers spreading inland from northwest California into the northern Sacramento Valley. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear to the south of Sacramento. Current temperatures range from the 30s in the mountains to the upper 40s and 50s across the Central Valley.
Precipitation across the north is expected to taper today as the jet weakens/retreats northward and weakening front sags into NorCal. Additional QPF today is expected to be less than a quarter inch across the northern mountains.
Generally drier and milder conditions are expected through the end of the work week. Breezy northerly winds are expected beginning Wednesday as pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible, mainly across the northern Sacramento Valley on Wednesday, and throughout the Central Valley on Thursday.
Seasonal, or slightly below average temperatures are expected.
Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Deterministic models coming into better agreement over the weekend indicating a pair of Pacific storms will move through interior NorCal. First moves through Saturday, followed by a colder stronger low Sunday. Widespread precipitation is depicted with Sundays system bringing some moderate to heavy snow in the mountains of Western Plumas county and Northern Sierra Nevada. Forecast confidence lowers early next week as model differences become more significant. Ensemble solutions however maintain upper troughing over NorCal Mon/Tue for a continued unsettled weather forecast.