Light precipitation expected today, with locally breezy southerly winds. Gusty north to east winds develop Thursday into Friday morning. Warm and dry weather expected late week into next week.
Discussion
A quick-moving system moves through the Pacific NW and interior NorCal today, bringing light showers and mountain snow showers. Hi-Res models shows the system weakening as it moves across interior NorCal. Best chances for any measurable precipitation will be north of I-80, especially over the mountains. Precipitation amounts will generally range from 0.25-0.50 inches over the mountains north of I-80. Elsewhere, less than 0.10 inches are expected, with some locations not seeing any measurable precipitation. Snow amounts will be around 1-3″ for elevations above 6000 feet, with little to no impacts. Locally breezy southerly winds up to 15-25 mph are expected as well, mainly across portions of the northern/central Sacramento Valley and northeastern foothills. There is a 10% probability of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across eastern portions of Shasta and Tehama Counties, per latest NBM and Hi-Res.
Gusty north to east winds develop Thursday into Friday morning as the system moves into the Great Basin. NBM generally shows 50-95% probabilities for wind gusts greater than 30 mph along the I-5 corridor and in the gaps/canyons of the foothills and mountains. Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph are expected. Winds taper off by late Friday morning. In addition, the HREF highlights a 20-40% probability of fog development from Sacramento southward Thursday morning, but this will be dependent on northerly winds.
Strong ridging builds in behind the system and amplifies over NorCal late week into next week, resulting in warming and drying trend. High temperatures should reach the middle to upper 60s across the Valley late this week, with 40s and upper 50s across the higher elevations.
Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Ensembles and clusters depict ridging this weekend into next week, with dry conditions and above normal temperatures anticipated across interior NorCal.
High temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s are expected through the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. NBM indicates a 35-60% probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F throughout the Delta, Valley, and foothills this weekend, then increasing to 50-90% Monday through Wednesday. There is also a 20-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75 degrees F early to mid next week across portions of the northern/central Sacramento Valley.
Occasional periods of breezy north to east winds are expected at times.