February 16, 2026 – A strong and cold trough brings widespread moderate to heavy rain, periods of heavy snow for the mountains and foothills, gusty south winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances to interior NorCal throughout the week.
Snow levels around 3500-4500 feet today are expected to fall to around 1500-2500 feet from Tuesday onward. Some fluctuations down to 1000 feet along the Sierra and below 1000 feet in the northern Sacramento Valley will be possible, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Heaviest snowfall, with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour, is expected through Tuesday, followed by a brief break of light to moderate snowfall on Wednesday, with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour returning by Thursday. As a result, the Winter Storm Warning has been extended through 10 pm Thursday evening and to include low elevation portions of Shasta County.
Likewise, as periods of gusty south to west winds continue as the system remains over the region this week, the Wind Advisory has been extended through 10 pm Thursday, with strongest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, anticipated Tuesday and late Wednesday through Thursday.
While periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected for most Valley locations, instances of urban and roadway flooding will likely continue, with some potential for rises on small streams and creeks. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours tonight and Tuesday, although the highest chances, up to 20%, are currently anticipated on Tuesday throughout most of the Valley. Primary hazards with any thunderstorms that develop will be heavy precipitation, small accumulating hail, and gusty winds, with a low chance for an isolated funnel cloud or weak tornado.
Ensemble guidance is generally in agreement that by late in the week, the trough will begin ejecting eastward toward the Rockies. This looks to introduce a period of primarily dry weather to the region on Friday, although some lingering mountain snow showers will remain possible. While some uncertainty remains with respect to the intensity of lingering snowfall on Friday, at least gradual improvements in travel conditions are anticipated at this time.
Next Weekend
While the aforementioned system currently impacting the region is expected to trail off as it pushes eastward, ensemble guidance is beginning to indicate a separate trough digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska by the weekend. Exact timing and resultant details remain highly uncertain, but there is increasing potential at this time for additional periods of active weather to continue through the weekend and into early next week.