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Warm weather continues through the end of the week with high temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal. Cooler over the weekend with a pattern change and possible precipitation starting Sunday.

Discussion

Clear skies cover the region early this morning. The offshore (north to east) surface pressure gradients have slackened since Tuesday, and a bit of onshore gradient has begun to develop from the coast into the Sacramento area. Winds at Travis AFB were quite gusty out of the north at this time yesterday and have now switched to the southwest at 10-15 mph.

Satellite imagery indicates the axis of the strong ridge has begun to shift slowly east. The ridge will flatten a bit today, and through the end of the week as short-wave energy passes well to the north. Highs today and Thursday will be similar to Tuesday’s (around 10-20 degrees above average), and some daily records will once again be in jeopardy. Not quite as warm temperatures are expected heading into the weekend as the next upstream trough approaches.

Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Troughing will be building over the Pacific Sunday and that is going to bring unsettled and uncertain weather for much of the extended period. We continue to see high variability in the ensembles with this trough especially when it comes to timing.

The trough is expected to dig to our west and push over SoCal sometime early next week. This will bring the chance for showers over the area starting Sunday continuing into next week with the best shower chances over the the higher elevations. Additional shower chances mainly in northern areas will be possible mid week as another trough digs out of the Gulf of Alaska. Similar to the first trough there is quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and placement. Temperatures will cool to more seasonal levels but will briefly warm up on Tuesday.