March 6, 2021 – Drier weather expected over the weekend, then unsettled weather through the first half of next week with periods of rain showers and mountain snow showers. Lingering showers possible over the Sierra Nevada Thursday into Friday.
Discussion
Pacific frontal system pushing through interior NorCal early this morning. Showers will be diminishing with drier weather expected today. Additional light snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches possible in the Western Plumas mountains and northern Sierra Nevada early this morning. Snow levels 4000 to 5500 feet. High temperatures expected to be near to slightly below normal.
Next Pacific frontal system approaches NW CA Coast tonight, but forecast to weaken as it moves inland early Sunday. Main impact will be some associated cloudiness but no precipitation expected. Near normal high temperatures are predicted Sunday.
Deep upper low in GOA Monday progged to dig along the West Coast through the first half of next week. Embedded vort maxes will rotate through CWA resulting in periods of rain showers and mountain snow showers.
Some increased CAPE depicted over the Northern half of the Sacramento Valley Monday and southern half Tuesday into Wednesday for a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Snow levels expected to be around 2500 to 3500 feet.
Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
GEFS ensembles and clusters in good agreement advertising unsettled pattern through the end of next week. Initial system progged to dropped south over the bay area Wednesday with light showery rain in the Valley and light snow with an inch or two over the mountains.
Some uncertainty in placement of low over SoCal or the desert Southwest Thursday, either solution will bring drier conditions for NorCal. Ridge then is likely to build over the area as shown in ensembles Thursday/Friday.
High temperatures in the mid/upper 50’s Wednesday will warm to the mid/upper 60’s Thursday- Saturday. Unsettled conditions could return next weekend.