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April 14, 2020 – Dry with mild temperatures thru mid-week with local breezes at times. Cooler with a chance of mountain showers by the weekend.

Discussion

Clear skies cover the region early this morning. Mainly light northerly winds (less than 10 mph) continue across the Central Valley while local northeast wind gusts of 20-30 mph have developed across the west slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada as the RNO-SAC gradient has increased to around 4.5 mbs since Monday evening.

Dry and mild weather will continue for most of the region this week as NorCal will just to the east of strong ridging over the eastern Pacific. A series of stronger short-waves dropping down from the north may bring a return of mountain showers by Thursday and Friday along with a little cooler temperatures.

Gusty easterly winds will continue across the west slopes of the northern Sierra before tapering late this morning and this afternoon. Northerly breezes will persist through the Sacramento Valley today, but won’t be as strong as Monday.

Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Model variations on short wave troughing over the first half of the weekend lead to some forecast uncertainty with POPs. Solutions suggest some low probabilities of precipitation over the mountains Saturday. A stronger system begins to spread rain and mountain snow over interior NorCal by Sunday afternoon which continues into Monday evening. Light to moderate QPF depicted by guidance. Some snow accumulations possible above 6500 feet. Cooling trend Saturday into Monday. Lingering mountain showers may be possible Tuesday, but models suggest upper ridging with drier and warmer weather day 7.